Jong AZ 0-1 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong AZ and MVV meet at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong AZ have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Jong AZ have gone 4W 1D 2L this season (7 games, 1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.86 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
MVV's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's away record: 1W 0D 5L from 6 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 3.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Jong AZ half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
MVV half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 42% versus MVV 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 33% | MVV 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.75 xG and MVV 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.767 / defence 0.869 | MVV attack 0.558 / defence 1.761. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.447. Jong AZ's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.761 — this is suppressing Jong AZ's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Jong AZ games / 12 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 62% | Draw 23% | MVV 15%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | MVV 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Jong AZ 57% | MVV 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 62% | Draw 23% | MVV 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 42% | xG Jong AZ 1.75 / MVV 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.767 / def 0.869 | MVV attack 0.558 / def 1.761 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
0.70
MVV xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs MVV kick off?
Jong AZ vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 November 2021 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs MVV?
Jong AZ 0 - 1 MVV.
Where is Jong AZ vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs MVV part of?
Jong AZ vs MVV is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 62% chance of winning, MVV a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Jong AZ and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and MVV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong AZ and MVV in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. MVV (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 0.77x the league average against MVV's defence at 1.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — MVV's attack (0.56x) against Jong AZ's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
62%
1.60
23%
4.35
15%
6.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.45
0.70
MVV xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
6.86
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
3%
39.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 10.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Jong AZ and 0.70 for MVV, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 5W 1D 6L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV's form line: 5W 0D 7L from 12 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.25 for MVV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
On the road, MVV have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of MVV's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong AZ are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.25 scored and 2.67 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and MVV in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 5W 1D 6L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while MVV have gone 5W 0D 7L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or MVV away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.67 PPG; MVV away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: MVV won 4-0 on 1 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against MVV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong AZ
1
Draws
4
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 5, MVV have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Jong AZ 1-1 MVV.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and MVV?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong AZ see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 50%, MVV 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Jong AZ) and 67% (MVV).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 33% of games; MVV in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 33% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Jong AZ's recent games and 67% of MVV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and MVV tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, MVV in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as MVV defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat Jong AZ 0-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.75 xG and MVV 0.70 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong AZ fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.77 / defence 0.87 against MVV attack 0.56 / defence 1.76, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 62% | Draw 23% | MVV 15%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a MVV win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 33%, MVV 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
MVV's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.33 PPG, MVV 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. MVV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.