Jong AZ 0-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong AZ and Jong Utrecht meet at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong Utrecht (all games): 1W 2D 1L across 4 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.25 points per game. Last five: L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Jong AZ. A 1.75 PPG lead over Jong Utrecht (3.00 vs 1.25) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Jong Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 50% versus Jong Utrecht 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 50% | Jong Utrecht 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.33 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.933 / defence 0.963 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.904 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.386. Data: 4 Jong AZ games / 4 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 40% | Draw 27% | Jong Utrecht 34%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Jong Utrecht 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Jong AZ 50% | Jong Utrecht 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 10 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 40% | Draw 27% | Jong Utrecht 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Jong AZ 1.33 / Jong Utrecht 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.933 / def 0.963 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.904 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Jong Utrecht xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Jong AZ vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 September 2021 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Jong Utrecht?
Jong AZ 0 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Jong AZ vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Jong AZ vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 40% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Jong AZ and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Jong Utrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong AZ and Jong Utrecht in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-0D-0L in 4 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jong AZ's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Jong Utrecht's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.90x) against Jong AZ's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
40%
2.53
27%
3.75
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.54
1.21
Jong Utrecht xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.21 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 4W 0D 0L record — W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong Utrecht's form line: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Jong AZ are the form team by 1.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Utrecht.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong AZ are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Jong AZ have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Early Season
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 4W 0D 0L in their last 4 games (3.00 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have Jong AZ or Jong Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong AZ have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Jong Utrecht in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won 4-0 on 17 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Jong AZ
1
Draws
2
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 7, Jong Utrecht have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Jong AZ 1-4 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Jong Utrecht?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong AZ tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 50%, Jong Utrecht 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Jong AZ) and 50% (Jong Utrecht).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Jong Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 50% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Jong AZ's recent games and 50% of Jong Utrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong Utrecht defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Jong AZ 0-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.33 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.21 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong AZ fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.90 / defence 1.19, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 40% | Draw 27% | Jong Utrecht 34%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Jong Utrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 50%, Jong Utrecht 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Jong Utrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong AZ managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong Utrecht conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.