Jong AZ 1-1 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host Jong Ajax at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 17 November 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at AFAS Trainingscomplex this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Ajax have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong AZ 1.40 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Jong AZ have won 0, Jong Ajax 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Jong Ajax winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 42% and Jong Ajax 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 48% | Jong Ajax 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 2.40 xG and Jong Ajax 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.185 / defence 0.792 | Jong Ajax attack 1.100 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.367. Jong AZ's defence rating of 0.792 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Jong AZ games / 53 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 64% | Draw 18% | Jong Ajax 17%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.56 | Draw 5.56 | Jong Ajax 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.40 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 40% | Jong Ajax 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Nov 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 64% | Draw 18% | Jong Ajax 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 63% | xG Jong AZ 2.40 / Jong Ajax 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.185 / def 0.792 | Jong Ajax attack 1.100 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Jong Ajax xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 17 November 2022 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax?
Jong AZ 1 - 1 Jong Ajax.
Where is Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax part of?
Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 64% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 17% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Jong AZ and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Jong Ajax?
Record (2 meetings): Jong AZ 0W | Draws 1 | Jong Ajax 1W.
What form are Jong AZ and Jong Ajax in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Jong Ajax (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Jong Ajax's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.40. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
64%
1.56
18%
5.43
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.59
1.19
Jong Ajax xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.43
18%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
9%
11.03
Win to Nil
20%
5.13
2%
63.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.19 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong AZ come into this having played 52 games, going 19W 8D 25L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 1.60 PPG from 52 outings (23W 14D 15L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.25 PPG, Jong Ajax on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong AZ's home form reads 11W 4D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 1.24 points per game from 25 outings (8W 7D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong AZ are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 2.13 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 79%.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 19W 8D 25L in their last 52 games (1.25 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 23W 14D 15L in their last 52 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Jong Ajax away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.48 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jong Ajax go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2023, when Jong AZ won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong AZ
2
Draws
3
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 5, Jong Ajax have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2026, when Jong AZ 1-2 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Jong Ajax?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 40%, Jong Ajax 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Jong AZ) and 64% (Jong Ajax).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Jong AZ's games and 76% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Jong AZ's recent games and 64% of Jong Ajax's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ and Jong Ajax share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 16, as Jong AZ and Jong Ajax drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.40 xG and Jong Ajax 1.19 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.19 / defence 0.79 against Jong Ajax attack 1.10 / defence 1.19, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 64% | Draw 18% | Jong Ajax 17%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 48%, Jong Ajax 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.25 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.