Jong AZ 1-1 Heracles – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 44%, yet in-form Heracles provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong AZ vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AFAS Trainingscomplex plays host to Jong AZ versus Heracles in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Friday 6 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong AZ have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ at AFAS Trainingscomplex this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
Heracles (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Heracles arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Jong AZ half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Heracles half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 44% versus Heracles 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 48% | Heracles 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.84 xG and Heracles 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.091 / defence 0.947 | Heracles attack 1.232 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.355. Heracles have an above-average attack strength of 1.232 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Jong AZ games / 18 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 44% | Draw 22% | Heracles 33%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.27 | Draw 4.55 | Heracles 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Heracles (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 60% | Heracles 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 6 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 44% | Draw 22% | Heracles 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Jong AZ 1.84 / Heracles 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.091 / def 0.947 | Heracles attack 1.232 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Heracles xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Heracles kick off?
Jong AZ vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 January 2023 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Heracles?
Jong AZ 1 - 1 Heracles.
Where is Jong AZ vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Heracles part of?
Jong AZ vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 44% chance of winning, Heracles a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Jong AZ and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Heracles?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong AZ and Heracles in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Heracles (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 1.09x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Heracles's attack (1.23x) against Jong AZ's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 54/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
44%
2.27
22%
4.47
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.42
1.58
Heracles xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
9%
11.00
5%
18.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.58 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 19W 9D 26L from 54 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 23W 8D 23L across 54 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.43 for Heracles. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 11W 5D 11L from 27 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 8W 2D 17L across 27 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong AZ are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.65 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Heracles in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 19W 9D 26L in their last 54 games (1.22 PPG), while Heracles have gone 23W 8D 23L in their last 54 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Heracles away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.41 PPG; Heracles away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Jong AZ
1
Draws
1
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Heracles?
From 2 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 0, Heracles have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2023, when Heracles 2-0 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 44%, Heracles 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Jong AZ) and 63% (Heracles).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 37% of games; Heracles in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 44% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Jong AZ's recent games and 63% of Heracles's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and Heracles tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Heracles in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ and Heracles share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ and Heracles finished level at 1-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.84 xG and Heracles 1.58 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against Heracles attack 1.23 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 44% | Draw 22% | Heracles 33%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 48%, Heracles 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.22 PPG, Heracles 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.