Jong AZ 1-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 3 as Jong AZ welcome FC OSS to AFAS Trainingscomplex. Kick-off is set for Monday 23 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 2W 0D 0L from 2 Eerste Divisie matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 3.00 PPG (Jong AZ) versus 3.00 (FC OSS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.06 xG and FC OSS 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.073 / defence 1.097 | FC OSS attack 0.794 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 0.971 / away 1.653. Data: 2 Jong AZ games / 2 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 26% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 44%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | FC OSS 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC OSS as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 23 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 26% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Jong AZ 1.06 / FC OSS 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.073 / def 1.097 | FC OSS attack 0.794 / def 1.016 | league avg home 0.971 / away 1.653 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.44
FC OSS xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs FC OSS kick off?
Jong AZ vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 23 August 2021 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Jong AZ 1 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Jong AZ vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs FC OSS part of?
Jong AZ vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 26% chance of winning, FC OSS a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Jong AZ and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong AZ and FC OSS in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 1.07x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 2/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
26%
3.85
30%
3.34
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.50
1.44
FC OSS xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
6%
16.22
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.44 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 0L across 2 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 3.00 PPG, FC OSS on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.50 scored and 0.50 conceded. Jong AZ's scoring rate against FC OSS's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC OSS in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Early Season
FC OSS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Jong AZ or FC OSS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong AZ have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, FC OSS in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and FC OSS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jong AZ won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
3
Draws
3
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 4, FC OSS have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when FC OSS 0-3 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Jong AZ's games and 50% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Jong AZ's matches and 50% of FC OSS's.
Shock result as Jong AZ defy the odds to beat FC OSS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat FC OSS 1-0 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.06 xG and FC OSS 1.44 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC OSS landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.07 / defence 1.10 against FC OSS attack 0.79 / defence 1.02, drawn from 2/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 26% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 44%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 100%, FC OSS 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 3.00 PPG, FC OSS 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.