Jong AZ 1-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven meet at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jong AZ's home record at AFAS Trainingscomplex: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
FC Eindhoven have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to FC Eindhoven, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with FC Eindhoven winning.
It is worth noting that FC Eindhoven have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 49% versus FC Eindhoven 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 49% | FC Eindhoven 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 2.02 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.082 / defence 1.105 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.716 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.311. Data: 67 Jong AZ games / 67 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 60% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 19%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | FC Eindhoven 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Jong AZ 70% | FC Eindhoven 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 17 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 60% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Jong AZ 2.02 / FC Eindhoven 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.082 / def 1.105 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.716 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.04
FC Eindhoven xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 March 2023 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Jong AZ 1 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 60% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven?
Record (3 meetings): Jong AZ 0W | Draws 0 | FC Eindhoven 3W.
What form are Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.72x) against Jong AZ's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
60%
1.66
21%
4.75
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.06
1.04
FC Eindhoven xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
13%
7.55
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
2%
40.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.04 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 23W 13D 31L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 33W 15D 19L from 67 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, FC Eindhoven are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong AZ.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 1.52 PPG from 33 outings (14W 8D 11L).
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 13W 8D 12L from 33 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Jong AZ are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.67 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Current Season
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 23W 13D 31L in their last 67 games (1.22 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 33W 15D 19L in their last 67 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.52 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC Eindhoven have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong AZ
3
Draws
6
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 1, FC Eindhoven have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2025, when FC Eindhoven 3-2 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 54%, FC Eindhoven 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Jong AZ) and 46% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 30% of games; FC Eindhoven in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 46% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Jong AZ's recent games and 46% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 29, as Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.02 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.04 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.08 / defence 1.10 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.72 / defence 1.06, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 60% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 19%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 49%, FC Eindhoven 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.