Jong AZ 1-3 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven meet at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's home record at AFAS Trainingscomplex: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
FC Eindhoven have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Eindhoven arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Jong AZ, 1 for FC Eindhoven and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with FC Eindhoven winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 42% versus FC Eindhoven 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 38% | FC Eindhoven 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 0.96 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.766 / defence 1.065 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.875 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.448. Jong AZ's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Jong AZ games / 26 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 26% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 46%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | FC Eindhoven 2.17. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Eindhoven at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 40% | FC Eindhoven 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 26% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Jong AZ 0.96 / FC Eindhoven 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.766 / def 1.065 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.875 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.35
FC Eindhoven xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 February 2022 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Jong AZ 1 - 3 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 26% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven?
Record (1 meetings): Jong AZ 0W | Draws 0 | FC Eindhoven 1W.
What form are Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong AZ's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.88x) against Jong AZ's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
26%
3.78
28%
3.59
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.31
1.35
FC Eindhoven xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
7%
14.57
18%
5.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.4 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.35 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 7W 4D 15L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 14W 5D 7L from 26 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Eindhoven are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong AZ.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 1.38 PPG from 13 outings (5W 3D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Jong AZ are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 5W 2D 6L from 13 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Eindhoven's season.
Attack vs Defence
Jong AZ are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.81 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: FC Eindhoven in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 7W 4D 15L in their last 26 games (0.96 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 14W 5D 7L in their last 26 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.38 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Jong AZ or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong AZ have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC Eindhoven have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong AZ
3
Draws
6
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 1, FC Eindhoven have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2025, when FC Eindhoven 3-2 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong AZ see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 38% (Jong AZ) and 31% (FC Eindhoven) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Jong AZ and 38% for FC Eindhoven.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 38%; Jong AZ have failed to score in 46% of games; FC Eindhoven in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 31% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Jong AZ's recent games and 38% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Jong AZ 1-3 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 0.96 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.35 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Eindhoven outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.77 / defence 1.06 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 26% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 46%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 38%, FC Eindhoven 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.