Jong AZ 2-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host Dordrecht at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — All Games: 5W 0D 3L from 8 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.88 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 0.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 3W 0D 1L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 2.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 1W 3D 4L from 8 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.75 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Jong AZ have the edge — a 1.13 PPG advantage (1.88 vs 0.75) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 38% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 50% versus Dordrecht 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 50% | Dordrecht 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.51 xG and Dordrecht 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.863 / defence 0.930 | Dordrecht attack 0.803 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.343. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Jong AZ's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Jong AZ games / 8 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 49% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 25%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Dordrecht 4.00. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Jong AZ 50% | Dordrecht 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 49% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Jong AZ 1.51 / Dordrecht 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.863 / def 0.930 | Dordrecht attack 0.803 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Dordrecht xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Dordrecht kick off?
Jong AZ vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 October 2021 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Jong AZ 2 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht part of?
Jong AZ vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 49% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Jong AZ and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong AZ and Dordrecht in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-0D-3L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 0.86x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.87
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.51
1.00
Dordrecht xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
6%
18.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.00 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong AZ come into this having played 8 games, going 5W 0D 3L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Jong AZ's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong AZ are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.00 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 5W 0D 3L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Dordrecht away?
Jong AZ's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 2.25 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2024, when Jong AZ won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
3
Draws
3
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 4, Dordrecht have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Jong AZ 1-2 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong AZ see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 50%, Dordrecht 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Jong AZ and 100% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Jong AZ's games and 75% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Jong AZ's matches and 100% of Dordrecht's.
Do Jong AZ and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong AZ edge out Dordrecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Dordrecht 2-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.51 xG and Dordrecht 1.00 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.86 / defence 0.93 against Dordrecht attack 0.80 / defence 1.31, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 49% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 25%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 50%, Dordrecht 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.