Jong AZ 3-3 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Den Bosch at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Den Bosch travel to AFAS Trainingscomplex to take on Jong AZ. The game is scheduled for Monday 20 December 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Jong AZ have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.78 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Den Bosch are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Jong AZ have won 0, Den Bosch 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 42% versus Den Bosch 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 37% | Den Bosch 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 0.99 xG and Den Bosch 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.598 / defence 0.865 | Den Bosch attack 0.752 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.541. Jong AZ's attack strength of 0.598 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing Jong AZ's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Jong AZ games / 19 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 34% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 35%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Den Bosch 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 40% | Den Bosch 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 20 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 34% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Jong AZ 0.99 / Den Bosch 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.598 / def 0.865 | Den Bosch attack 0.752 / def 1.407 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.541 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Den Bosch xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Den Bosch kick off?
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 20 December 2021 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Jong AZ 3 - 3 Den Bosch.
Where is Jong AZ vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Den Bosch part of?
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 34% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Jong AZ and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Den Bosch?
Record (1 meetings): Jong AZ 0W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are Jong AZ and Den Bosch in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jong AZ's attack rating (0.60) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
34%
2.91
31%
3.24
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.00
1.00
Den Bosch xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.00 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong AZ come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 3D 10L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Den Bosch sit at 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (8W 1D 10L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.11 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong AZ's home form reads 3W 2D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Den Bosch have taken 0.78 points per game from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Den Bosch's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong AZ are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.16 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 6W 3D 10L in their last 19 games (1.11 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 8W 1D 10L in their last 19 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Den Bosch away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.22 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Den Bosch won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong AZ
5
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 2, Den Bosch have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Jong AZ 2-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong AZ see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 33%, Den Bosch 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Jong AZ) and 56% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 56% of games; Den Bosch in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 44% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Jong AZ's recent games and 56% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ and Den Bosch share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 20, as Jong AZ and Den Bosch drew 3-3 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 0.99 xG and Den Bosch 1.00 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Den Bosch outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.60 / defence 0.86 against Den Bosch attack 0.75 / defence 1.41, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 34% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 35%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 37%, Den Bosch 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.11 PPG, Den Bosch 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.