Jong AZ 2-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host De Graafschap at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 13 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — All Games: 4W 0D 1L from 5 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 1L across 3 games at AFAS Trainingscomplex this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 3W 0D 2L from 5 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Jong AZ have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Jong AZ 40% | De Graafschap 20%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 40% | De Graafschap 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 0.87 xG and De Graafschap 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.783 / defence 0.951 | De Graafschap attack 1.075 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.390. Jong AZ's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Jong AZ games / 5 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 23% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 50%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | De Graafschap 2.00. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jong AZ (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 33% | De Graafschap 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 23% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Jong AZ 0.87 / De Graafschap 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.783 / def 0.951 | De Graafschap attack 1.075 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.42
De Graafschap xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong AZ vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 13 September 2021 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Jong AZ 2 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong AZ vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 23% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Jong AZ and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong AZ and De Graafschap in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-0D-1L in 5 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong AZ's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
23%
4.36
27%
3.69
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.29
1.42
De Graafschap xG
4.36
23%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
6%
18.04
21%
4.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 14.4 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.42 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 2.40 PPG on a 4W 0D 1L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap's form line: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games, 1.80 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Jong AZ are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against De Graafschap.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 20%.
Defensively: Jong AZ have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; De Graafschap in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 games (2.40 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have Jong AZ or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong AZ have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
De Graafschap go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2026, when De Graafschap won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong AZ
2
Draws
6
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 2, De Graafschap have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when De Graafschap 5-0 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Jong AZ 40% BTTS, De Graafschap 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Jong AZ) and 60% (De Graafschap).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; De Graafschap in 40%; De Graafschap in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 20% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Jong AZ's recent games and 60% of De Graafschap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong AZ defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat De Graafschap 2-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 0.87 xG and De Graafschap 1.42 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.78 / defence 0.95 against De Graafschap attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 23% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 50%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Jong AZ win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 40%, De Graafschap 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
De Graafschap's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jong AZ scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.