Jong AZ vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host De Graafschap at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 19 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at AFAS Trainingscomplex this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Jong AZ have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong AZ register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
De Graafschap have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters against Jong AZ's 2 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2026, ended 5–2 with Jong AZ winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. De Graafschap have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 64% and De Graafschap 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 70% | De Graafschap 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.66 xG and De Graafschap 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.865 / defence 0.966 | De Graafschap attack 0.878 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.953 / away 1.573. Data: 47 Jong AZ games / 45 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 45% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 31%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 3.23. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
De Graafschap lead the H2H ledger, but Jong AZ carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 60% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 19 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 45% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Jong AZ 1.66 / De Graafschap 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.865 / def 0.966 | De Graafschap attack 0.878 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.953 / away 1.573 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.33
De Graafschap xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong AZ vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 19 April 2027 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
Where is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong AZ vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 45% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Jong AZ and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
Record (10 meetings): Jong AZ 2W | Draws 2 | De Graafschap 6W.
What form are Jong AZ and De Graafschap in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong AZ's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
45%
2.21
24%
4.17
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.00
1.33
De Graafschap xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
6%
17.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.33 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 16W 5D 26L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 19W 11D 17L from 47 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.13 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 0.87 PPG from 23 outings (6W 2D 15L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 9W 7D 7L from 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.81 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 74%.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 16W 5D 26L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 19W 11D 17L in their last 47 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 0.87 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2026, when De Graafschap won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong AZ
2
Draws
6
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 2, De Graafschap have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2026, when De Graafschap 2-5 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 52%, De Graafschap 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Jong AZ and 70% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Jong AZ's games and 74% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Jong AZ's matches and 70% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong AZ and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.