Jong Ajax 0-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Ajax vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong Ajax and PEC Zwolle meet at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong Ajax (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportpark De Toekomst, Jong Ajax have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PEC Zwolle have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 away games — 2.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. PEC Zwolle are 1.90 PPG clear of Jong Ajax in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (2.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Jong Ajax, 0 for PEC Zwolle and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Jong Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
PEC Zwolle half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 79% and PEC Zwolle 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 66% | PEC Zwolle 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.11 xG and PEC Zwolle 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.976 / defence 1.178 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.405 / defence 0.677. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.295. PEC Zwolle's defence strength of 0.677 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PEC Zwolle have an above-average attack strength of 1.405 — the away xG of 2.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Jong Ajax games / 22 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 19% | Draw 20% | PEC Zwolle 61%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 5.26 | Draw 5.00 | PEC Zwolle 1.64. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 80% | PEC Zwolle 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 6 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 19% | Draw 20% | PEC Zwolle 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Jong Ajax 1.11 / PEC Zwolle 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.976 / def 1.178 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.405 / def 0.677 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
2.14
PEC Zwolle xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Jong Ajax vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 6 February 2023 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs PEC Zwolle?
Jong Ajax 0 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Jong Ajax vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Jong Ajax vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 19% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 61% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Jong Ajax and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and PEC Zwolle?
Record (1 meetings): Jong Ajax 0W | Draws 1 | PEC Zwolle 0W.
What form are Jong Ajax and PEC Zwolle in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (1.41x) against Jong Ajax's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 2.14.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
19%
5.33
20%
4.95
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.25
2.14
PEC Zwolle xG
5.33
19%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
12%
8.53
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
2%
45.46
20%
4.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 2.14 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Jong Ajax have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 22W 18D 16L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle's form line: 24W 8D 24L from 56 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Jong Ajax against 1.43 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jong Ajax have posted 1.85 PPG from 27 outings (14W 8D 5L).
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 13W 1D 13L from 27 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Ajax are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.45 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 22W 18D 16L in their last 56 games (1.50 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 24W 8D 24L in their last 56 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.85 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Jong Ajax
2
Draws
0
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and PEC Zwolle?
From 2 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 0, PEC Zwolle have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2023, when Jong Ajax 0-0 PEC Zwolle.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 82%, PEC Zwolle 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Jong Ajax and 52% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle in 33%; PEC Zwolle in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Jong Ajax's games and 30% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Jong Ajax's matches and 52% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Jong Ajax and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jong Ajax's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 23, as Jong Ajax and PEC Zwolle drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.11 xG and PEC Zwolle 2.14 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jong Ajax fell 1.1 short of their projected output. PEC Zwolle landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.98 / defence 1.18 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.41 / defence 0.68, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 19% | Draw 20% | PEC Zwolle 61%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 66%, PEC Zwolle 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.50 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.