Jong Ajax 6-3 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 39%, yet in-form NAC Breda provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong Ajax and NAC Breda meet at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Monday 13 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong Ajax (all games): 1W 0D 4L across 5 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Jong Ajax have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda away from home this season: 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
NAC Breda arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Jong Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 80% and NAC Breda 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Ajax 80% | NAC Breda 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.20 xG and NAC Breda 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.841 / defence 1.241 | NAC Breda attack 0.610 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.390. Data: 5 Jong Ajax games / 5 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 39% | Draw 29% | NAC Breda 32%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | NAC Breda 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Ajax are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form NAC Breda (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Jong Ajax 80% | NAC Breda 33%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 39% | Draw 29% | NAC Breda 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Jong Ajax 1.20 / NAC Breda 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.841 / def 1.241 | NAC Breda attack 0.610 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.05
NAC Breda xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda kick off?
Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda?
Jong Ajax 6 - 3 NAC Breda.
Where is Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda part of?
Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 39% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Jong Ajax and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and NAC Breda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong Ajax and NAC Breda in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 1W-3D-1L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.61x) against Jong Ajax's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
39%
2.54
29%
3.49
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.25
1.05
NAC Breda xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
10%
10.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.05 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Jong Ajax have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 1W 0D 4L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jong Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NAC Breda's form line: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, NAC Breda are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Ajax.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Defensively: NAC Breda in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
Have Jong Ajax or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong Ajax won 2-6 on 13 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Jong Ajax
2
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 3, NAC Breda have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Jong Ajax 0-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and NAC Breda?
Jong Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 80%, NAC Breda 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Jong Ajax and 60% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 40%; NAC Breda in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Jong Ajax's games and 40% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Jong Ajax's matches and 60% of NAC Breda's.
Do Jong Ajax and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong Ajax run riot with a 6-3 hammering of NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat NAC Breda 6-3 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.20 xG and NAC Breda 1.05 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 6-3 for 9 actual goals. Jong Ajax beat their projection by 4.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. NAC Breda outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.84 / defence 1.24 against NAC Breda attack 0.61 / defence 1.13, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 39% | Draw 29% | NAC Breda 32%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 80%, NAC Breda 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Jong Ajax winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Ajax scored 6 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. NAC Breda scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.