Jong Ajax 4-4 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Ajax host FC Volendam at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Ajax stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong Ajax have posted 4W 0D 2L at Sportpark De Toekomst — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.83 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Volendam have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's away record: 4W 2D 0L from 6 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong Ajax 2.20 PPG, FC Volendam 2.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong Ajax register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant matches, FC Volendam in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Jong Ajax trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
FC Volendam trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 86% and FC Volendam 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Ajax 86% | FC Volendam 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.69 xG and FC Volendam 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.364 / defence 1.108 | FC Volendam attack 1.161 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.555. Jong Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 14 Jong Ajax games / 14 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 33% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 46%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 3.03 | Draw 4.76 | FC Volendam 2.17. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 83% | FC Volendam 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 33% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Jong Ajax 1.69 / FC Volendam 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.364 / def 1.108 | FC Volendam attack 1.161 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.555 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
2.00
FC Volendam xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam kick off?
Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 November 2021 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam?
Jong Ajax 4 - 4 FC Volendam.
Where is Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam part of?
Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 33% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 46% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Jong Ajax and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and FC Volendam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong Ajax and FC Volendam in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
33%
3.03
21%
4.67
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.69
2.00
FC Volendam xG
3.03
33%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.38
Clean Sheet
14%
7.40
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
4%
22.41
8%
11.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 2.00 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Jong Ajax have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 8W 1D 5L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam's form line: 9W 4D 1L from 14 games, 2.21 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Ajax.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong Ajax have posted 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (4W 0D 2L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Ajax are averaging 2.36 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.50 scored and 1.29 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 71%.
Last 14 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 8W 1D 5L in their last 14 games (1.79 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 9W 4D 1L in their last 14 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Volendam away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC Volendam go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2024, when FC Volendam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Jong Ajax
1
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 0, FC Volendam have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2025, when Jong Ajax 0-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong Ajax at 83%, FC Volendam at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Jong Ajax and 67% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Jong Ajax's games and 67% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Jong Ajax's matches and 67% of FC Volendam's.
Do Jong Ajax and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Ajax and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 16, as Jong Ajax and FC Volendam drew 4-4 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.69 xG and FC Volendam 2.00 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Jong Ajax beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Volendam outscored their 2.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.36 / defence 1.11 against FC Volendam attack 1.16 / defence 0.97, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 33% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 46%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 82% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 86%, FC Volendam 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.