Jong Ajax 4-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC OSS make the trip to Sportpark De Toekomst to face Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Monday 4 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong Ajax (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong Ajax have posted 6W 3D 1L at Sportpark De Toekomst — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Jong Ajax are significantly better at Sportpark De Toekomst than their overall form suggests.
FC OSS's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
FC OSS away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Jong Ajax, 1.40 for FC OSS — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Jong Ajax register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, FC OSS in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Jong Ajax 0W, FC OSS 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jong Ajax goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 78% and FC OSS 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Ajax 72% | FC OSS 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 2.09 xG and FC OSS 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.382 / defence 1.250 | FC OSS attack 0.766 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.430. Jong Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.382 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC OSS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Jong Ajax's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Jong Ajax games / 32 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 54% | Draw 22% | FC OSS 24%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | FC OSS 4.17. Jong Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Ajax as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 80% | FC OSS 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 4 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 54% | Draw 22% | FC OSS 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG Jong Ajax 2.09 / FC OSS 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.382 / def 1.250 | FC OSS attack 0.766 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.37
FC OSS xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs FC OSS kick off?
Jong Ajax vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 4 April 2022 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs FC OSS?
Jong Ajax 4 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Jong Ajax vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs FC OSS part of?
Jong Ajax vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 54% chance of winning, FC OSS a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Jong Ajax and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and FC OSS?
Record (1 meetings): Jong Ajax 0W | Draws 1 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are Jong Ajax and FC OSS in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. FC OSS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong Ajax's attack rating (1.38) and FC OSS's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.77x) against Jong Ajax's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
54%
1.87
22%
4.52
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.46
1.37
FC OSS xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
12%
8.10
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
3%
33.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.37 for FC OSS, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Jong Ajax have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 16W 7D 9L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
FC OSS's form line: 9W 8D 15L from 32 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Jong Ajax are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jong Ajax have posted 2.06 PPG from 16 outings (10W 3D 3L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 4W 3D 9L from 16 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Ajax are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.28 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; FC OSS in 66%.
Last 32 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Current Season
FC OSS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 16W 7D 9L in their last 32 games (1.72 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 9W 8D 15L in their last 32 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or FC OSS away?
Jong Ajax's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 2.06 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong Ajax won 4-1 on 4 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Ajax
4
Draws
4
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 2, FC OSS have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Jong Ajax 1-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 81% for Jong Ajax, 56% for FC OSS — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Jong Ajax and 56% for FC OSS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Jong Ajax's games and 56% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Jong Ajax's matches and 56% of FC OSS's.
Do Jong Ajax and FC OSS tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong Ajax run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat FC OSS 4-1 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 2.09 xG and FC OSS 1.37 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Jong Ajax beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.38 / defence 1.25 against FC OSS attack 0.77 / defence 1.23, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 54% | Draw 22% | FC OSS 24%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 72%, FC OSS 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.