Jong Ajax 1-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dordrecht at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Sportpark De Toekomst to face Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Monday 16 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong Ajax (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Jong Ajax have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 0.95 xG and Dordrecht 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.972 / defence 1.150 | Dordrecht attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.855 / away 1.523. Data: 1 Jong Ajax games / 1 Dordrecht games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 22% | Draw 31% | Dordrecht 47%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 4.55 | Draw 3.23 | Dordrecht 2.13. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 16 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 22% | Draw 31% | Dordrecht 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Jong Ajax 0.95 / Dordrecht 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.972 / def 1.150 | Dordrecht attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.855 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Dordrecht xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 16 August 2021 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht?
Jong Ajax 1 - 2 Dordrecht.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht part of?
Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 22% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Jong Ajax and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Dordrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong Ajax and Dordrecht in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. Dordrecht (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.85x) against Jong Ajax's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
22%
4.58
31%
3.23
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.44
1.49
Dordrecht xG
4.58
22%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
5%
20.31
18%
5.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.9 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.49 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong Ajax come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Jong Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Ajax are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dordrecht won 4-0 on 20 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong Ajax
3
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 3, Dordrecht have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Dordrecht 0-1 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Dordrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 100% of Dordrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Jong Ajax's recent games and 0% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Ajax and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out Jong Ajax 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Jong Ajax 1-2 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 0.95 xG and Dordrecht 1.49 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Dordrecht attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 22% | Draw 31% | Dordrecht 47%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 0%, Dordrecht 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jong Ajax scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.