Jong Ajax 4-4 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong Ajax and Den Bosch meet at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Monday 14 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportpark De Toekomst, Jong Ajax have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Den Bosch (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Jong Ajax against 1.50 for Den Bosch. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Den Bosch in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Jong Ajax, 0 for Den Bosch and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2022, ended 2–1 with Jong Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong Ajax — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 77% and Den Bosch 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 67% | Den Bosch 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.94 xG and Den Bosch 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.075 / defence 0.898 | Den Bosch attack 0.903 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.355. Data: 52 Jong Ajax games / 52 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 57% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 21%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Den Bosch 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Jong Ajax (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Ajax at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 80% | Den Bosch 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 14 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 57% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Jong Ajax 1.94 / Den Bosch 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.075 / def 0.898 | Den Bosch attack 0.903 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Den Bosch xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 14 November 2022 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Jong Ajax 4 - 4 Den Bosch.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch part of?
Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 57% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Jong Ajax and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Den Bosch?
Record (2 meetings): Jong Ajax 2W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 0W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Den Bosch in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.90x) against Jong Ajax's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.56
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.04
1.10
Den Bosch xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
3%
32.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.10 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 23W 13D 16L from 52 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 20W 5D 27L across 52 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Jong Ajax against 1.25 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 15W 6D 4L from 25 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Jong Ajax are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 6W 4D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Ajax are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.23 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 23W 13D 16L in their last 52 games (1.58 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 20W 5D 27L in their last 52 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Den Bosch away?
Jong Ajax's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 2.04 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong Ajax
2
Draws
5
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 3, Den Bosch have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Jong Ajax 3-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Jong Ajax, 52% for Den Bosch — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Jong Ajax and 56% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Jong Ajax's games and 52% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Jong Ajax's matches and 56% of Den Bosch's.
Do Jong Ajax and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Ajax and Den Bosch share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 15, as Jong Ajax and Den Bosch drew 4-4 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.94 xG and Den Bosch 1.10 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Jong Ajax beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Den Bosch outscored their 1.10 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.07 / defence 0.90 against Den Bosch attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 57% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 21%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 67%, Den Bosch 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.58 PPG, Den Bosch 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.