Jong Ajax 1-3 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Jong Ajax at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Ajax vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sportpark De Toekomst plays host to Jong Ajax versus Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Monday 21 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Sportpark De Toekomst this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Jong Ajax are significantly better at Sportpark De Toekomst than their overall form suggests.
Almere City FC have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Jong Ajax's 2.00 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Almere City FC's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Jong Ajax register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Almere City FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Jong Ajax, 0 for Almere City FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 4–2 with Jong Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong Ajax — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 77% and Almere City FC 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Ajax 69% | Almere City FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 2.43 xG and Almere City FC 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.299 / defence 1.021 | Almere City FC attack 0.831 / defence 1.600. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.436. Jong Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 2.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.600 — this is suppressing Jong Ajax's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Jong Ajax games / 26 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 64% | Draw 19% | Almere City FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | Almere City FC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Jong Ajax (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.43 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Ajax are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 70% | Almere City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 21 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 64% | Draw 19% | Almere City FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 64% | xG Jong Ajax 2.43 / Almere City FC 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.299 / def 1.021 | Almere City FC attack 0.831 / def 1.600 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Almere City FC xG
64%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Almere City FC kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 21 February 2022 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Almere City FC?
Jong Ajax 1 - 3 Almere City FC.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Almere City FC part of?
Jong Ajax vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 64% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Jong Ajax and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Almere City FC?
Record (1 meetings): Jong Ajax 1W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 0W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Almere City FC in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jong Ajax's attack at 1.30x the league average against Almere City FC's defence at 1.60x — combine the two and it projects 2.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.83x) against Jong Ajax's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
64%
1.57
19%
5.33
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.65
1.22
Almere City FC xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.33
19%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
9%
11.36
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
2%
65.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.22 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 15W 4D 7L from 26 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 4W 8D 14L across 26 games — 0.77 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jong Ajax by 1.11 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 9W 2D 2L from 13 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 2W 4D 7L across 13 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Ajax are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.38 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; Almere City FC in 65%.
Last 26 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 15W 4D 7L in their last 26 games (1.88 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 4W 8D 14L in their last 26 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Almere City FC away?
Jong Ajax's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 2.23 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Almere City FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jong Ajax
0
Draws
4
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 2, Almere City FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Jong Ajax 0-2 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for Jong Ajax, 77% for Almere City FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Jong Ajax and 69% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Jong Ajax's games and 77% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Jong Ajax's matches and 69% of Almere City FC's.
Do Jong Ajax and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Jong Ajax 1-3 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 2.43 xG and Almere City FC 1.22 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jong Ajax fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Almere City FC outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.30 / defence 1.02 against Almere City FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.60, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 64% | Draw 19% | Almere City FC 17%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Almere City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 69%, Almere City FC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.77. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.