Heracles 3-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees FC OSS travel to Erve Asito to take on Heracles. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 November 2022, 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Heracles have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's home record at Erve Asito: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Heracles carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
FC OSS in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 49% versus FC OSS 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 57% | FC OSS 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 2.72 xG and FC OSS 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.509 / defence 1.004 | FC OSS attack 0.865 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.360. Heracles carry an above-average attack strength of 1.509 — their λ of 2.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 15 Heracles games / 52 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 70% | Draw 16% | FC OSS 14%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 1.43 | Draw 6.25 | FC OSS 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (70%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.72 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heracles at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 70% | FC OSS 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Nov 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 70% | Draw 16% | FC OSS 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 65% | xG Heracles 2.72 / FC OSS 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.509 / def 1.004 | FC OSS attack 0.865 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Heracles (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.72
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.18
FC OSS xG
65%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs FC OSS kick off?
Heracles vs FC OSS kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 19 November 2022 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs FC OSS?
Heracles 3 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Heracles vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs FC OSS part of?
Heracles vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 70% chance of winning, FC OSS a 14% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Heracles and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and FC OSS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Heracles and FC OSS in?
Heracles (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. FC OSS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Heracles's attack at 1.51x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
70%
1.43
16%
6.24
14%
7.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.72
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.90
1.18
FC OSS xG
1.43
70%
Home win
6.24
16%
Draw
7.07
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
7%
15.18
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
1%
107.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Heracles and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 2.72 expected goals for Heracles and 1.18 for FC OSS, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Heracles come into this having played 51 games, going 20W 8D 23L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 1.00 PPG from 51 outings (14W 9D 28L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 1.33 PPG, FC OSS on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Heracles's home form reads 13W 6D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.84 points per game from 25 outings (6W 3D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Heracles are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.24 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 20W 8D 23L in their last 51 games (1.33 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 14W 9D 28L in their last 51 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or FC OSS away?
Heracles's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.80 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heracles and FC OSS runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Heracles
0
Draws
0
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and FC OSS?
From 2 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, FC OSS have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2023, when FC OSS 1-5 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and FC OSS?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 56%, FC OSS 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Heracles and 68% for FC OSS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FC OSS in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Heracles's games and 56% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Heracles's matches and 68% of FC OSS's.
Do Heracles and FC OSS tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Heracles run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat FC OSS 3-0 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 2.72 xG and FC OSS 1.18 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC OSS landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.51 / defence 1.00 against FC OSS attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 15/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 70% | Draw 16% | FC OSS 14%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 57%, FC OSS 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.33 PPG, FC OSS 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.