Heracles 3-2 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 95% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heracles host Den Bosch at Erve Asito in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 March 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Heracles at Erve Asito this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 3.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Den Bosch's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Heracles are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Heracles have won 1, Den Bosch 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Heracles trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Den Bosch trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 49% versus Den Bosch 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 58% | Den Bosch 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 5.00 xG and Den Bosch 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.645 / defence 0.876 | Den Bosch attack 0.688 / defence 1.911. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.331. Heracles carry an above-average attack strength of 1.645 — their λ of 5.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.911 — this is suppressing Heracles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Heracles games / 67 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 95% | Draw 3% | Den Bosch 2%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 1.05 | Draw 33.33 | Den Bosch 50.00. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (95%) — a 93pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 93% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 5.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 93% — a total xG of 5.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 95% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 5.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 93% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 50% | Den Bosch 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Mar 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 95% | Draw 3% | Den Bosch 2% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 93% | BTTS 55% | xG Heracles 5.00 / Den Bosch 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.645 / def 0.876 | Den Bosch attack 0.688 / def 1.911 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Heracles (95%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
5.00
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Den Bosch xG
55%
BTTS
98%
Over 1.5
93%
Over 2.5
83%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Den Bosch kick off?
Heracles vs Den Bosch kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 26 March 2023 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Den Bosch?
Heracles 3 - 2 Den Bosch.
Where is Heracles vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Den Bosch part of?
Heracles vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 95% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Heracles and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 93%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Den Bosch?
Record (1 meetings): Heracles 1W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 0W.
What form are Heracles and Den Bosch in?
Heracles (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 3.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Heracles's attack rating (1.65) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.91), the model arrives at 5.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 4-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.9%. Close behind: 5-0 (7.9%), 6-0 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
95%
1.05
3%
29.07
2%
63.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
4 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
5 – 0
7.9%
Home win
3 – 0
6.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
5.00
Heracles xG
Total xG
5.80
0.80
Den Bosch xG
1.05
95%
Home win
29.07
3%
Draw
63.29
2%
Away win
Goals Markets
98%
Over 1.5
1.02
2%
Under 1.5
50.00
93%
Over 2.5
1.08
7%
Under 2.5
14.29
83%
Over 3.5
1.20
17%
Under 3.5
5.88
69%
Over 4.5
1.45
31%
Under 4.5
3.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
1%
148.41
Win to Nil
43%
2.35
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 2 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 4-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are Heracles and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 5.00 expected goals for Heracles and 0.80 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 5.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 95%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Heracles have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 29W 10D 26L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Den Bosch's form line: 21W 8D 36L from 65 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 1.49 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Heracles have posted 1.91 PPG from 32 outings (18W 7D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 5W 5D 22L from 32 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Den Bosch's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.22 scored and 2.02 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 29W 10D 26L in their last 65 games (1.49 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 21W 8D 36L in their last 65 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Den Bosch away?
Heracles's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.91 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Heracles
0
Draws
0
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Den Bosch?
From 2 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, Den Bosch have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 26 March 2023, when Heracles 3-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Den Bosch?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 53%, Den Bosch 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Heracles) and 62% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Den Bosch in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Heracles's recent matches and 50% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Heracles's matches and 62% of Den Bosch's.
Do Heracles and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Heracles edge out Den Bosch 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Den Bosch 3-2 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 5.00 xG and Den Bosch 0.80 xG, a combined 5.80. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Heracles fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Den Bosch outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.65 / defence 0.88 against Den Bosch attack 0.69 / defence 1.91, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 95% | Draw 3% | Den Bosch 2%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 95%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 93%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 98% and landed. Over 3.5 was 83% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 58%, Den Bosch 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.49 PPG, Den Bosch 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.