Heracles 4-0 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs ADO Den Haag encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Erve Asito plays host to Heracles versus ADO Den Haag in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Friday 5 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Heracles's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Heracles haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Heracles have posted 3W 4D 3L at Erve Asito — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
ADO Den Haag have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. ADO Den Haag haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, ADO Den Haag have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
ADO Den Haag arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Heracles have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, ADO Den Haag in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Heracles goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
ADO Den Haag goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 47% versus ADO Den Haag 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 42% | ADO Den Haag 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.45 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.073 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.435. Data: 0 Heracles games / 38 ADO Den Haag games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Heracles 32% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 45%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 3.12 | Draw 4.35 | ADO Den Haag 2.22. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 70% | ADO Den Haag 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Friday 5 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 32% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Heracles 1.45 / ADO Den Haag 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.073 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.77
ADO Den Haag xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Heracles vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 August 2022 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs ADO Den Haag?
Heracles 4 - 0 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Heracles vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Heracles vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 32% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Heracles and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and ADO Den Haag?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Heracles and ADO Den Haag in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Heracles (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Heracles's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against ADO Den Haag's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — ADO Den Haag's attack (1.07x) against Heracles's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
32%
3.15
23%
4.34
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.22
1.77
ADO Den Haag xG
3.15
32%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
17%
5.88
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
5%
18.50
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Heracles and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Heracles and 1.77 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Heracles have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 9W 7D 20L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. Heracles haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 21W 8D 7L from 36 games, 1.97 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. ADO Den Haag haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 1.03 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Heracles.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Heracles have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 10W 3D 5L from 18 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Heracles are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.03 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Pre-Season
ADO Den Haag
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 9W 7D 20L in their last 36 games (0.94 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 21W 8D 7L in their last 36 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.44 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Heracles
0
Draws
0
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and ADO Den Haag?
From 2 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, ADO Den Haag have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2023, when ADO Den Haag 0-3 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and ADO Den Haag?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 56%, ADO Den Haag 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Heracles) and 61% (ADO Den Haag).
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Heracles's games and 56% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Heracles's recent games and 61% of ADO Den Haag's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heracles and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Heracles run riot with a 4-0 hammering of ADO Den Haag.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat ADO Den Haag 4-0 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.45 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.77 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Heracles beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ADO Den Haag landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.07 / defence 1.04, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 32% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 45%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Heracles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 42%, ADO Den Haag 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Heracles winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.