Helmond Sport 0-3 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helmond Sport vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Helmond Sport and Roda meet at SolarUnie Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Helmond Sport's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helmond Sport have posted 3W 1D 3L at SolarUnie Stadion — 1.43 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Roda (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's away record: 3W 1D 1L from 5 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Helmond Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 50% versus Roda 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 58% | Roda 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.14 xG and Roda 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.744 / defence 1.011 | Roda attack 1.035 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.447. Helmond Sport's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Helmond Sport games / 12 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 29% | Draw 26% | Roda 46%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Roda 2.17. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Helmond Sport 43% | Roda 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: SolarUnie Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 29% | Draw 26% | Roda 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Helmond Sport 1.14 / Roda 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.744 / def 1.011 | Roda attack 1.035 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Roda (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Roda xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs Roda kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 November 2021 at SolarUnie Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Roda?
Helmond Sport 0 - 3 Roda.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at SolarUnie Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Roda part of?
Helmond Sport vs Roda is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 29% chance of winning, Roda a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Helmond Sport and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Roda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Helmond Sport and Roda in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Roda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 0.74x the league average against Roda's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Roda's attack (1.03x) against Helmond Sport's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
29%
3.50
26%
3.91
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.65
1.51
Roda xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
6%
15.90
15%
6.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.51 for Roda, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Helmond Sport have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 4W 2D 6L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda's form line: 5W 3D 4L from 12 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Helmond Sport against 1.50 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Helmond Sport have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, Roda have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.50 PPG overall record — Roda travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.83 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and Roda in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Roda have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.40 PPG; Roda away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Helmond Sport or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helmond Sport have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Roda in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 0-3 on 5 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helmond Sport have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Helmond Sport
2
Draws
5
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 3, Roda have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Roda 1-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 40%, Roda 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Helmond Sport and 80% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Helmond Sport have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 60% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helmond Sport vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Helmond Sport's matches and 80% of Roda's.
Do Helmond Sport and Roda tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Roda in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Roda run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Helmond Sport 0-3 at SolarUnie Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.14 xG and Roda 1.51 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Helmond Sport fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Roda outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.74 / defence 1.01 against Roda attack 1.03 / defence 1.19, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 29% | Draw 26% | Roda 46%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 58%, Roda 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Roda's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.17 PPG, Roda 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.