Helmond Sport 4-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 31 as Helmond Sport welcome NAC Breda to SolarUnie Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Helmond Sport's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 games at SolarUnie Stadion this term (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NAC Breda — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
NAC Breda away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour NAC Breda — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Helmond Sport, 1 for NAC Breda and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with NAC Breda winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Helmond Sport trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
NAC Breda trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 53% versus NAC Breda 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 60% | NAC Breda 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 0.95 xG and NAC Breda 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.687 / defence 1.500 | NAC Breda attack 0.995 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.463. Helmond Sport's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Helmond Sport games / 30 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 15% | Draw 20% | NAC Breda 65%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 6.67 | Draw 5.00 | NAC Breda 1.54. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 70% | NAC Breda 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: SolarUnie Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 15% | Draw 20% | NAC Breda 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 55% | xG Helmond Sport 0.95 / NAC Breda 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.687 / def 1.500 | NAC Breda attack 0.995 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
2.19
NAC Breda xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda kick off?
Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 March 2022 at SolarUnie Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Helmond Sport 4 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at SolarUnie Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda part of?
Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 15% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 65% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Helmond Sport and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and NAC Breda?
Record (1 meetings): Helmond Sport 0W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are Helmond Sport and NAC Breda in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 0.69x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 2.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
15%
6.67
20%
5.04
65%
1.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
3.14
2.19
NAC Breda xG
6.67
15%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
1.53
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
11%
8.89
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
2%
59.27
25%
3.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 2.19 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helmond Sport come into this having played 30 games, going 6W 6D 18L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (13W 9D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Helmond Sport's home form reads 3W 3D 9L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.63 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 6W 6D 18L in their last 30 games (0.80 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 13W 9D 8L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 0.80 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Helmond Sport or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helmond Sport have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Helmond Sport won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Helmond Sport
2
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 2, NAC Breda have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2024, when Helmond Sport 1-0 NAC Breda.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 60%, NAC Breda 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Helmond Sport and 53% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport have failed to score in 27% of games; NAC Breda in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 47% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Helmond Sport's matches and 53% of NAC Breda's.
Do Helmond Sport and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Helmond Sport run riot with a 4-0 hammering of NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat NAC Breda 4-0 at SolarUnie Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 0.95 xG and NAC Breda 2.19 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Helmond Sport beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. NAC Breda landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.69 / defence 1.50 against NAC Breda attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 15% | Draw 20% | NAC Breda 65%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Helmond Sport win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 60%, NAC Breda 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Helmond Sport winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.