Helmond Sport 0-3 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong Utrecht at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helmond Sport vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong Utrecht make the trip to SolarUnie Stadion to face Helmond Sport in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Friday 17 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Helmond Sport have collected 1.00 PPG across 6 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 0D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Helmond Sport have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at SolarUnie Stadion, Helmond Sport have gone 2W 0D 1L this season (3 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at SolarUnie Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Helmond Sport are significantly better at SolarUnie Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Jong Utrecht (all games): 3W 2D 1L across 6 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.83 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.83. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Jong Utrecht are the stronger side — 0.83 PPG clear of the hosts (1.83 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Helmond Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Jong Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 50% versus Jong Utrecht 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 50% | Jong Utrecht 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.13 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.830 / defence 0.938 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.875 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.436. Data: 6 Helmond Sport games / 6 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 35% | Draw 28% | Jong Utrecht 37%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Jong Utrecht 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Utrecht at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Helmond Sport 33% | Jong Utrecht 67%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: SolarUnie Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 35% | Draw 28% | Jong Utrecht 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Helmond Sport 1.13 / Jong Utrecht 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.830 / def 0.938 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.875 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Jong Utrecht xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 September 2021 at SolarUnie Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Jong Utrecht?
Helmond Sport 0 - 3 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at SolarUnie Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Helmond Sport vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 35% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Helmond Sport and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Jong Utrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Helmond Sport and Jong Utrecht in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-0D-4L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.83 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Helmond Sport's attack rating (0.83) and Jong Utrecht's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.88x) against Helmond Sport's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
35%
2.88
28%
3.53
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.31
1.18
Jong Utrecht xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.36
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.18 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Helmond Sport come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 0D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Helmond Sport, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong Utrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Helmond Sport's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Helmond Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jong Utrecht have taken 1.67 points per game from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L).
Attack vs Defence
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.50 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Early Season
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Helmond Sport's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 2.00 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Helmond Sport or Jong Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helmond Sport have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jong Utrecht in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helmond Sport won 4-0 on 6 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helmond Sport have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Helmond Sport
1
Draws
5
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 4, Jong Utrecht have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Jong Utrecht 1-0 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Jong Utrecht?
Jong Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Helmond Sport tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 33%, Jong Utrecht 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Helmond Sport and 33% for Jong Utrecht.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Jong Utrecht in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play Jong Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 67% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helmond Sport vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Helmond Sport's recent games and 33% of Jong Utrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helmond Sport and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong Utrecht run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Helmond Sport 0-3 at SolarUnie Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.13 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.18 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Helmond Sport fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Jong Utrecht outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.83 / defence 0.94 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 35% | Draw 28% | Jong Utrecht 37%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 50%, Jong Utrecht 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.