Helmond Sport 1-2 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong AZ make the trip to SolarUnie Stadion to face Helmond Sport in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Friday 13 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Helmond Sport (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Helmond Sport have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Jong AZ are 3.00 PPG clear of Helmond Sport in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (3.00 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 0.96 xG and Jong AZ 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.982 / defence 1.150 | Jong AZ attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.853 / away 1.212. Data: 1 Helmond Sport games / 1 Jong AZ games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 27% | Draw 34% | Jong AZ 38%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | Jong AZ 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: SolarUnie Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 27% | Draw 34% | Jong AZ 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Helmond Sport 0.96 / Jong AZ 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.982 / def 1.150 | Jong AZ attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.853 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Jong AZ xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 August 2021 at SolarUnie Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ?
Helmond Sport 1 - 2 Jong AZ.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at SolarUnie Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ part of?
Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 27% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Helmond Sport and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Jong AZ?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Helmond Sport and Jong AZ in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. Jong AZ (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Helmond Sport's attack rating (0.98) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.85x) against Helmond Sport's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
27%
3.68
34%
2.91
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.15
1.19
Jong AZ xG
3.68
27%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.8 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.19 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Helmond Sport have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Helmond Sport, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong AZ's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Jong AZ are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helmond Sport.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Helmond Sport are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helmond Sport have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Helmond Sport
1
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 5, Jong AZ have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Jong AZ 2-0 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Jong AZ?
Helmond Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 100% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Helmond Sport's recent games and 100% of Jong AZ's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helmond Sport and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong AZ edge out Helmond Sport 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Helmond Sport 1-2 at SolarUnie Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 0.96 xG and Jong AZ 1.19 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jong AZ outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Jong AZ attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 27% | Draw 34% | Jong AZ 38%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 0%, Jong AZ 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Helmond Sport scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.