Helmond Sport 3-1 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Jong Ajax at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 9 as Helmond Sport welcome Jong Ajax to SolarUnie Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have gone 2W 0D 6L from 8 outings — a 0.75 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at SolarUnie Stadion, Helmond Sport have gone 2W 0D 2L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at SolarUnie Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.75 — Helmond Sport are significantly better at SolarUnie Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Ajax stand at 4W 0D 4L from 8 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.38 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.12 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 2W 0D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jong Ajax — 0.75 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.75). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Helmond Sport trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Jong Ajax trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Helmond Sport 38% and Jong Ajax 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Helmond Sport 50% | Jong Ajax 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.31 xG and Jong Ajax 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.706 / defence 1.166 | Jong Ajax attack 1.070 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.343. Helmond Sport's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Helmond Sport's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Helmond Sport games / 8 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 30% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 46%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Jong Ajax 2.17. Jong Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Ajax at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Helmond Sport 25% | Jong Ajax 75%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: SolarUnie Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 30% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Helmond Sport 1.31 / Jong Ajax 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.706 / def 1.166 | Jong Ajax attack 1.070 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Jong Ajax xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 October 2021 at SolarUnie Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax?
Helmond Sport 3 - 1 Jong Ajax.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at SolarUnie Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax part of?
Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 30% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Helmond Sport and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Jong Ajax?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Helmond Sport and Jong Ajax in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-0D-6L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.75 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Jong Ajax (all comps): 4W-0D-4L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.38 / GA 2.12 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 0.71x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
30%
3.34
24%
4.18
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.98
1.68
Jong Ajax xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
6%
17.81
12%
8.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.68 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Helmond Sport come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 0D 6L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (4W 0D 4L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Ajax carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Helmond Sport's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — Helmond Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Helmond Sport are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 2.38 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 88%.
Last 8 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 2W 0D 6L in their last 8 games (0.75 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 4W 0D 4L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Jong Ajax away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.50 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helmond Sport and Jong Ajax runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when Jong Ajax won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Helmond Sport
3
Draws
3
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 4, Jong Ajax have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Jong Ajax 5-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Jong Ajax?
Helmond Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helmond Sport tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 25%, Jong Ajax 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Helmond Sport and 75% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play Jong Ajax?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 75% of Jong Ajax's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Helmond Sport's matches and 75% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Helmond Sport and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helmond Sport cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat Jong Ajax 3-1 at SolarUnie Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.31 xG and Jong Ajax 1.68 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Helmond Sport beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.71 / defence 1.17 against Jong Ajax attack 1.07 / defence 1.38, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 30% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 46%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Helmond Sport win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 50%, Jong Ajax 88%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Helmond Sport winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.