Helmond Sport 1-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 39%, yet in-form Den Bosch provide a compelling counter-argument — this Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 18 as Helmond Sport welcome Den Bosch to GS Staalwerken Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 December 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Helmond Sport — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport at GS Staalwerken Stadion this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Den Bosch's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Helmond Sport's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Helmond Sport register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Den Bosch in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Helmond Sport, 1 for Den Bosch and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 47% versus Den Bosch 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 60% | Den Bosch 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.59 xG and Den Bosch 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.831 / defence 1.181 | Den Bosch attack 0.975 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.364. Data: 55 Helmond Sport games / 55 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 39% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 38%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Den Bosch 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Helmond Sport are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Den Bosch (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 60% | Den Bosch 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Dec 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 39% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Helmond Sport 1.59 / Den Bosch 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.831 / def 1.181 | Den Bosch attack 0.975 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Den Bosch xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 December 2022 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Helmond Sport 1 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch part of?
Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 39% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Helmond Sport and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Den Bosch?
Record (2 meetings): Helmond Sport 0W | Draws 1 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are Helmond Sport and Den Bosch in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 0.83x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
39%
2.60
24%
4.24
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
3.16
1.57
Den Bosch xG
2.60
39%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
8%
12.49
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.57 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Helmond Sport's recent record stands at 13W 7D 35L from 55 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 20W 6D 29L across 55 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helmond Sport on 0.84 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Helmond Sport have managed 7W 4D 16L from 27 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 6W 5D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Helmond Sport are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.24 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 13W 7D 35L in their last 55 games (0.84 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 20W 6D 29L in their last 55 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Den Bosch away?
Helmond Sport's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 0.93 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helmond Sport and Den Bosch runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Helmond Sport's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Helmond Sport
3
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 4, Den Bosch have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Helmond Sport 2-0 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Den Bosch?
Helmond Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 59%, Den Bosch 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Helmond Sport and 56% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport have failed to score in 26% of games; Den Bosch in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Helmond Sport's games and 52% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Helmond Sport's matches and 56% of Den Bosch's.
Do Helmond Sport and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Helmond Sport edge out Den Bosch 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat Den Bosch 1-0 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.59 xG and Den Bosch 1.57 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Den Bosch landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Den Bosch attack 0.97 / defence 1.18, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 39% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 38%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 60%, Den Bosch 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 0.84 PPG, Den Bosch 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helmond Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.