Helmond Sport 0-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 16 as Helmond Sport welcome De Graafschap to GS Staalwerken Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 November 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Helmond Sport — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helmond Sport have posted 3W 1D 6L at GS Staalwerken Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Helmond Sport) versus 1.40 (De Graafschap). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Helmond Sport, 1 for De Graafschap and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2022, ended 0–4 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 49% versus De Graafschap 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 62% | De Graafschap 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.78 xG and De Graafschap 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.923 / defence 1.176 | De Graafschap attack 1.012 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.354. Data: 53 Helmond Sport games / 53 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 42% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 35%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | De Graafschap 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Helmond Sport as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 70% | De Graafschap 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Nov 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 42% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Helmond Sport 1.78 / De Graafschap 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.923 / def 1.176 | De Graafschap attack 1.012 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.61
De Graafschap xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap kick off?
Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 18 November 2022 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Helmond Sport 0 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap part of?
Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 42% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Helmond Sport and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and De Graafschap?
Record (2 meetings): Helmond Sport 1W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are Helmond Sport and De Graafschap in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 0.92x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
42%
2.37
23%
4.43
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
3.40
1.61
De Graafschap xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
8%
11.86
6%
16.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.61 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helmond Sport's recent record stands at 13W 7D 33L from 53 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 19L across 53 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Helmond Sport heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Helmond Sport have managed 7W 4D 15L from 26 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 11W 4D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.40 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 13W 7D 33L in their last 53 games (0.87 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 19W 15D 19L in their last 53 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 0.96 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Helmond Sport or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helmond Sport have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Apr 2022, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Helmond Sport
1
Draws
6
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 3, De Graafschap have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Helmond Sport 0-0 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 62%, De Graafschap 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Helmond Sport and 69% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Helmond Sport's games and 58% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Helmond Sport's matches and 69% of De Graafschap's.
Do Helmond Sport and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Helmond Sport 0-2 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.78 xG and De Graafschap 1.61 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Helmond Sport fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.92 / defence 1.18 against De Graafschap attack 1.01 / defence 1.14, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 42% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 35%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 62%, De Graafschap 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
De Graafschap's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.