Helmond Sport 0-4 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 36 as Helmond Sport welcome De Graafschap to SolarUnie Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Helmond Sport — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helmond Sport have posted 1W 2D 7L at SolarUnie Stadion — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Helmond Sport) versus 0.70 (De Graafschap). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Helmond Sport, 0 for De Graafschap and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Helmond Sport winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 54% versus De Graafschap 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 66% | De Graafschap 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.09 xG and De Graafschap 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.853 / defence 1.369 | De Graafschap attack 0.826 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.452. Data: 35 Helmond Sport games / 35 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 25% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 50%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | De Graafschap 2.00. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Helmond Sport 70% | De Graafschap 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: SolarUnie Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 25% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Helmond Sport 1.09 / De Graafschap 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.853 / def 1.369 | De Graafschap attack 0.826 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.64
De Graafschap xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap kick off?
Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 April 2022 at SolarUnie Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Helmond Sport 0 - 4 De Graafschap.
Where is Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at SolarUnie Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap part of?
Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 25% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Helmond Sport and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and De Graafschap?
Record (1 meetings): Helmond Sport 1W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 0W.
What form are Helmond Sport and De Graafschap in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 0.85x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
25%
3.98
25%
4.06
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.73
1.64
De Graafschap xG
3.98
25%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
5%
20.57
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.64 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helmond Sport's recent record stands at 7W 6D 22L from 35 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 12L across 35 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Helmond Sport heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Helmond Sport have managed 4W 3D 10L from 17 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 10W 2D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.46 PPG overall record — De Graafschap travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.31 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: De Graafschap in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 7W 6D 22L in their last 35 games (0.77 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 14W 9D 12L in their last 35 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 0.88 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Helmond Sport or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helmond Sport have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Apr 2022, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Helmond Sport
1
Draws
6
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 3, De Graafschap have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Helmond Sport 0-0 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 59%, De Graafschap 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Helmond Sport and 65% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 47% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Helmond Sport's matches and 65% of De Graafschap's.
Do Helmond Sport and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Helmond Sport 0-4 at SolarUnie Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.09 xG and De Graafschap 1.64 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Helmond Sport fell 1.1 short of their projected output. De Graafschap outscored their 1.64 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.85 / defence 1.37 against De Graafschap attack 0.83 / defence 1.01, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 25% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 50%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 66%, De Graafschap 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
De Graafschap's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.