FC Volendam 1-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees NAC Breda travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam. The game is scheduled for Monday 18 October 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Volendam — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 1L across 5 games at Kras Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, FC Volendam have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 70%.
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 80% and NAC Breda 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 90% | NAC Breda 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.35 xG and NAC Breda 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.237 / defence 1.258 | NAC Breda attack 0.743 / defence 1.461. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.334. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.461 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 FC Volendam games / 10 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 62% | Draw 19% | NAC Breda 19%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | NAC Breda 5.26. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.35 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 80% | NAC Breda 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 18 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 62% | Draw 19% | NAC Breda 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 64% | xG FC Volendam 2.35 / NAC Breda 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.237 / def 1.258 | NAC Breda attack 0.743 / def 1.461 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.25
NAC Breda xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs NAC Breda kick off?
FC Volendam vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 18 October 2021 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs NAC Breda?
FC Volendam 1 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is FC Volendam vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs NAC Breda part of?
FC Volendam vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 62% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC Volendam and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and NAC Breda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Volendam and NAC Breda in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Volendam's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
62%
1.62
19%
5.27
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.59
1.25
NAC Breda xG
1.62
62%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
10%
10.46
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
2%
54.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.25 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 6W 3D 1L from 10 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 4L across 10 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Volendam by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NAC Breda heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 2.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.60 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 games (2.10 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or NAC Breda away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.00 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.40 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Volendam's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and NAC Breda?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, NAC Breda have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when NAC Breda 1-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and NAC Breda?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 80%, NAC Breda 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC Volendam and 40% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of FC Volendam's games and 40% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC Volendam's matches and 40% of NAC Breda's.
Do FC Volendam and NAC Breda tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out NAC Breda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat NAC Breda 1-0 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.35 xG and NAC Breda 1.25 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Volendam fell 1.3 short of their projected output. NAC Breda landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.24 / defence 1.26 against NAC Breda attack 0.74 / defence 1.46, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 62% | Draw 19% | NAC Breda 19%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 90%, NAC Breda 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.