FC Volendam 2-0 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Volendam at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong Utrecht make the trip to Kras Stadion to face FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 4 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC Volendam (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong Utrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. FC Volendam's 2.20 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Jong Utrecht's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Jong Utrecht in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Volendam lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with FC Volendam winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
FC Volendam half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 91% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 65% versus Jong Utrecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 70% | Jong Utrecht 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.21 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.369 / defence 1.124 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.780 / defence 1.426. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.406. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.369 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.426 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 FC Volendam games / 23 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 60% | Draw 20% | Jong Utrecht 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Jong Utrecht 5.00. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.45 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Jong Utrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 60% | Draw 20% | Jong Utrecht 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Volendam 2.21 / Jong Utrecht 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.369 / def 1.124 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.780 / def 1.426 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Jong Utrecht xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 February 2022 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht?
FC Volendam 2 - 0 Jong Utrecht.
Where is FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht part of?
FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 60% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht?
Record (1 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 0 | Jong Utrecht 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Volendam's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Jong Utrecht's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.78x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
60%
1.68
20%
5.01
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.45
1.23
Jong Utrecht xG
1.68
60%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
11%
9.14
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
2%
44.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.23 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 15W 7D 1L from 23 games, a 2.26 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 13L across 23 games — 0.96 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Volendam by 1.30 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Utrecht heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 8W 2D 1L from 11 games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 3W 4D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.04 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 15W 7D 1L in their last 23 games (2.26 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 6W 4D 13L in their last 23 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Jong Utrecht away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.36 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 1.18 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Jong Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Jong Utrecht in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Volendam have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
FC Volendam
0
Draws
0
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 4, Jong Utrecht have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2025, when Jong Utrecht 2-3 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for FC Volendam, 73% for Jong Utrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 91% for FC Volendam and 73% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of FC Volendam's games and 73% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 91% of FC Volendam's matches and 73% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Jong Utrecht 2-0 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.21 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.23 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jong Utrecht landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.37 / defence 1.12 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.78 / defence 1.43, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 60% | Draw 20% | Jong Utrecht 20%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 70%, Jong Utrecht 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.