FC Volendam 2-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Volendam at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Volendam and Jong AZ meet at Kras Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Volendam have posted 8W 2D 0L at Kras Stadion — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. FC Volendam's 2.40 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Jong AZ's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FC Volendam, 0 for Jong AZ and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with FC Volendam winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 62% versus Jong AZ 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 62% | Jong AZ 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.93 xG and Jong AZ 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.340 / defence 1.021 | Jong AZ attack 0.585 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.419. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — their λ of 1.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Jong AZ bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 FC Volendam games / 24 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 63% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 16%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Jong AZ 6.25. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: FC Volendam 70% | Jong AZ 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 63% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG FC Volendam 1.93 / Jong AZ 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.340 / def 1.021 | Jong AZ attack 0.585 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Jong AZ xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Jong AZ kick off?
FC Volendam vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 February 2022 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Jong AZ?
FC Volendam 2 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is FC Volendam vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Jong AZ part of?
FC Volendam vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 63% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC Volendam and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Jong AZ?
Record (1 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Jong AZ in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Jong AZ (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.34x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.58x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 25/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
63%
1.60
21%
4.66
16%
6.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.77
0.85
Jong AZ xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
6.30
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
2%
43.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for FC Volendam and 0.85 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 16W 7D 1L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ's form line: 7W 4D 13L from 24 games, 1.04 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong AZ.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 2.42 PPG from 12 outings (9W 2D 1L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 2W 1D 9L from 12 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong AZ's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 0.92 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 16W 7D 1L in their last 24 games (2.29 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 7W 4D 13L in their last 24 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Jong AZ away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.42 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.58 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Volendam have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
FC Volendam
0
Draws
0
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Jong AZ?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 4, Jong AZ have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2025, when Jong AZ 0-1 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Jong AZ?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 67%, Jong AZ 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for FC Volendam and 42% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Jong AZ in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 42% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Volendam vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of FC Volendam's matches and 42% of Jong AZ's.
Do FC Volendam and Jong AZ tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Jong AZ 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Jong AZ 2-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.93 xG and Jong AZ 0.85 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.34 / defence 1.02 against Jong AZ attack 0.58 / defence 1.25, drawn from 25/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 63% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 16%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 62%, Jong AZ 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong AZ's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.