FC Volendam 1-2 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Volendam host FC OSS at Kras Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Volendam — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Volendam at Kras Stadion this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
FC OSS's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Volendam at 1.60 PPG versus FC OSS's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Volendam have won 1, FC OSS 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 3–2 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Volendam trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
FC OSS trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 68% and FC OSS 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 64% | FC OSS 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.15 xG and FC OSS 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.320 / defence 1.308 | FC OSS attack 0.732 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.435. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC OSS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 FC Volendam games / 31 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 55% | Draw 21% | FC OSS 24%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | FC OSS 4.17. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | FC OSS 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 55% | Draw 21% | FC OSS 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG FC Volendam 2.15 / FC OSS 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.320 / def 1.308 | FC OSS attack 0.732 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.37
FC OSS xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs FC OSS kick off?
FC Volendam vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 April 2022 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs FC OSS?
FC Volendam 1 - 2 FC OSS.
Where is FC Volendam vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs FC OSS part of?
FC Volendam vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 55% chance of winning, FC OSS a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Volendam and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and FC OSS?
Record (1 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and FC OSS in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. FC OSS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.32x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
55%
1.83
21%
4.66
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.52
1.37
FC OSS xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
12%
8.54
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
3%
35.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.37 for FC OSS, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam come into this having played 31 games, going 18W 10D 3L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 1.03 PPG from 31 outings (8W 8D 15L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five.
FC Volendam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of FC OSS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Volendam's home form reads 11W 2D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.80 points per game from 15 outings (3W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.26 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; FC OSS in 65%.
Last 31 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Current Season
FC OSS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and FC OSS in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 18W 10D 3L in their last 31 games (2.06 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 8W 8D 15L in their last 31 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or FC OSS away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.33 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.80 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or FC OSS been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC OSS in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC Volendam go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2024, when FC Volendam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
0
Draws
1
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and FC OSS?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, FC OSS have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when FC OSS 0-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and FC OSS?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 73%, FC OSS 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for FC Volendam and 53% for FC OSS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of FC Volendam's games and 53% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of FC Volendam's matches and 53% of FC OSS's.
Do FC Volendam and FC OSS tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC OSS defy the odds to beat FC Volendam 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat FC Volendam 1-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.15 xG and FC OSS 1.37 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Volendam fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.32 / defence 1.31 against FC OSS attack 0.73 / defence 1.29, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 55% | Draw 21% | FC OSS 24%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a FC OSS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 64%, FC OSS 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
FC OSS's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with FC OSS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.