FC Volendam 2-5 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Excelsior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kras Stadion plays host to FC Volendam versus Excelsior in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Friday 11 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Volendam have posted 9W 1D 0L at Kras Stadion — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Excelsior (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Excelsior have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in FC Volendam's favour (2.40 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC Volendam, 0 for Excelsior and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 64% and Excelsior 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 64% | Excelsior 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.12 xG and Excelsior 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.398 / defence 1.035 | Excelsior attack 0.941 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.435. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.398 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Excelsior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 FC Volendam games / 29 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 54% | Draw 22% | Excelsior 25%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Excelsior 4.00. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Volendam if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Excelsior 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 54% | Draw 22% | Excelsior 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG FC Volendam 2.12 / Excelsior 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.398 / def 1.035 | Excelsior attack 0.941 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Excelsior xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Excelsior kick off?
FC Volendam vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 March 2022 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
FC Volendam 2 - 5 Excelsior.
Where is FC Volendam vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Excelsior part of?
FC Volendam vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 54% chance of winning, Excelsior a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Volendam and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Excelsior?
Record (1 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 1 | Excelsior 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Excelsior in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Excelsior (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (1.40) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (0.94x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
54%
1.86
22%
4.60
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.52
1.40
Excelsior xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
12%
8.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
3%
33.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.40 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Volendam come into this having played 28 games, going 18W 9D 1L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Excelsior sit at 1.96 PPG from 28 outings (17W 4D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.25 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.96 for Excelsior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Volendam's home form reads 11W 2D 1L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Excelsior have taken 2.00 points per game from 14 outings (9W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 2.29 scored and 1.36 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Excelsior in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Current Season
Excelsior
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Excelsior in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 18W 9D 1L in their last 28 games (2.25 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 17W 4D 7L in their last 28 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Excelsior away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.50 PPG; Excelsior away: 2.00 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Excelsior in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 4-0 on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
3
Draws
5
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Excelsior?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Excelsior have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Excelsior 1-1 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 71%, Excelsior 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for FC Volendam and 64% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC Volendam's games and 57% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of FC Volendam's matches and 64% of Excelsior's.
Do FC Volendam and Excelsior tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 2-5 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat FC Volendam 2-5 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.12 xG and Excelsior 1.40 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Excelsior outscored their 1.40 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.40 / defence 1.03 against Excelsior attack 0.94 / defence 1.25, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 54% | Draw 22% | Excelsior 25%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Excelsior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 64%, Excelsior 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Excelsior's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 2.25 PPG, Excelsior 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.