FC Volendam 3-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Volendam host De Graafschap at Kras Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 8 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Volendam — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC Volendam's home record at Kras Stadion: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Volendam at 1.30 PPG versus De Graafschap's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Volendam have won 1, De Graafschap 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2021, ended 3–0 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 70% versus De Graafschap 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 67% | De Graafschap 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.39 xG and De Graafschap 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.230 / defence 1.370 | De Graafschap attack 0.901 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.414. Data: 33 FC Volendam games / 33 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 31% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 46%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 2.17. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 80% | De Graafschap 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 31% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Volendam 1.39 / De Graafschap 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.230 / def 1.370 | De Graafschap attack 0.901 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.75
De Graafschap xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs De Graafschap kick off?
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 April 2022 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs De Graafschap?
FC Volendam 3 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is FC Volendam vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs De Graafschap part of?
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 31% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Volendam and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and De Graafschap?
Record (1 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and De Graafschap in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.23x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
31%
3.28
24%
4.23
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.13
1.75
De Graafschap xG
3.28
31%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
5%
18.77
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.75 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 18W 11D 4L from 33 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 10L across 33 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Volendam by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over De Graafschap heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 11W 2D 3L from 16 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 10W 2D 4L across 16 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.55 PPG overall record — De Graafschap travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.33 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: De Graafschap in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 18W 11D 4L in their last 33 games (1.97 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 14W 9D 10L in their last 33 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or De Graafschap away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.19 PPG; De Graafschap away: 2.00 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2021, when FC Volendam won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
0
Draws
1
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and De Graafschap?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, De Graafschap have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2024, when FC Volendam 2-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and De Graafschap?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 75%, De Graafschap 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for FC Volendam and 62% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC Volendam's games and 44% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of FC Volendam's matches and 62% of De Graafschap's.
Do FC Volendam and De Graafschap tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat De Graafschap 3-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.39 xG and De Graafschap 1.75 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.23 / defence 1.37 against De Graafschap attack 0.90 / defence 0.91, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 31% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 46%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual FC Volendam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 67%, De Graafschap 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
De Graafschap's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.55. Form held, and they took the win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.