FC Volendam 1-3 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
ADO Den Haag make the trip to Kras Stadion to face FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Friday 13 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC Volendam (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
ADO Den Haag have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. ADO Den Haag are 2.00 PPG clear of FC Volendam in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (3.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 0.96 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.982 / defence 1.150 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.853 / away 1.212. Data: 1 FC Volendam games / 1 ADO Den Haag games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 27% | Draw 34% | ADO Den Haag 38%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | ADO Den Haag 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, ADO Den Haag are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 27% | Draw 34% | ADO Den Haag 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG FC Volendam 0.96 / ADO Den Haag 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.982 / def 1.150 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.853 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.19
ADO Den Haag xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 August 2021 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag?
FC Volendam 1 - 3 ADO Den Haag.
Where is FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag part of?
FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 27% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both FC Volendam and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and ADO Den Haag?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Volendam and ADO Den Haag in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Volendam's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against ADO Den Haag's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — ADO Den Haag's attack (0.85x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
27%
3.68
34%
2.91
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.15
1.19
ADO Den Haag xG
3.68
27%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.8 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.19 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Volendam.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. FC Volendam's scoring rate against ADO Den Haag's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; ADO Den Haag in 0%.
Defensively: ADO Den Haag in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have FC Volendam or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against ADO Den Haag — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
FC Volendam
1
Draws
3
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and ADO Den Haag?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 0, ADO Den Haag have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when FC Volendam 1-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play ADO Den Haag?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 0% of ADO Den Haag's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Volendam vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of FC Volendam's recent games and 0% of ADO Den Haag's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Volendam and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ADO Den Haag cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat FC Volendam 1-3 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 0.96 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.19 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 27% | Draw 34% | ADO Den Haag 38%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 100%, ADO Den Haag 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. FC Volendam managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.