FC OSS 1-3 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 46%, yet in-form Willem II provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC OSS vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Frans Heesen Stadion plays host to FC OSS versus Willem II in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Friday 23 September 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC OSS have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Willem II have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Willem II are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 63% versus Willem II 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 66% | Willem II 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.44 xG and Willem II 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.861 / defence 0.950 | Willem II attack 0.795 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.361. Data: 45 FC OSS games / 7 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 46% | Draw 27% | Willem II 27%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Willem II 3.70. FC OSS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC OSS as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Willem II (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC OSS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC OSS 70% | Willem II 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 Sep 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 46% | Draw 27% | Willem II 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG FC OSS 1.44 / Willem II 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.861 / def 0.950 | Willem II attack 0.795 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Willem II xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Willem II kick off?
FC OSS vs Willem II kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 23 September 2022 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Willem II?
FC OSS 1 - 3 Willem II.
Where is FC OSS vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Willem II part of?
FC OSS vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 46% chance of winning, Willem II a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC OSS and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Willem II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC OSS and Willem II in?
FC OSS (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Willem II (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 0.86x the league average against Willem II's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.80x) against FC OSS's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.67
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.47
1.03
Willem II xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
6%
15.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.03 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC OSS's recent record stands at 10W 9D 22L from 41 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 20L across 41 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for FC OSS against 1.10 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 5W 6D 9L from 20 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 2W 5D 13L across 20 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC OSS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC OSS are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 0.98 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Willem II in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 10W 9D 22L in their last 41 games (0.95 PPG), while Willem II have gone 12W 9D 20L in their last 41 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Willem II away?
FC OSS's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.05 PPG; Willem II away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 0-5 on 12 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
FC OSS
1
Draws
5
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 0, Willem II have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when FC OSS 1-3 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 70%, Willem II 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (FC OSS) and 55% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC OSS's games and 50% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of FC OSS's matches and 55% of Willem II's.
Do FC OSS and Willem II tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Willem II in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat FC OSS 1-3 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.44 xG and Willem II 1.03 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Willem II outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against Willem II attack 0.80 / defence 0.98, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 46% | Draw 27% | Willem II 27%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 66%, Willem II 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.95 PPG, Willem II 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.