FC OSS 2-3 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees FC Volendam travel to Frans Heesen Stadion to take on FC OSS. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 September 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 3W 1D 3L from 7 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.43 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC OSS have posted 2W 1D 0L at Frans Heesen Stadion — 2.33 PPG. They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.43 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Volendam — All Games: 3W 3D 1L from 7 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.71 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.29 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 0L across 3 road games this term (1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC OSS 1.43 PPG, FC Volendam 1.71 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC OSS register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, FC Volendam in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
FC OSS in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 29% versus FC Volendam 71%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC OSS 57% | FC Volendam 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.67 xG and FC Volendam 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 1.270 / defence 1.173 | FC Volendam attack 1.029 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.442. FC OSS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 7 FC OSS games / 7 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 37% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 40%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | FC Volendam 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 67% | FC Volendam 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 37% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG FC OSS 1.67 / FC Volendam 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 1.270 / def 1.173 | FC Volendam attack 1.029 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.74
FC Volendam xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs FC Volendam kick off?
FC OSS vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs FC Volendam?
FC OSS 2 - 3 FC Volendam.
Where is FC OSS vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs FC Volendam part of?
FC OSS vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 37% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC OSS and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and FC Volendam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC OSS and FC Volendam in?
FC OSS (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-3D-1L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 2.29 / GA 1.29 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC OSS's attack rating (1.27) and FC Volendam's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
37%
2.69
23%
4.42
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.41
1.74
FC Volendam xG
2.69
37%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
18%
5.70
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
7%
15.35
8%
13.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are FC OSS and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.74 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC OSS's recent record stands at 3W 1D 3L from 7 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 1L across 7 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 1.43 PPG, FC Volendam on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — FC OSS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 1W 2D 0L across 3 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC OSS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.29 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or FC Volendam away?
FC OSS's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 2.33 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and FC Volendam runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Volendam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2024, when FC Volendam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC OSS
0
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 1, FC Volendam have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when FC OSS 0-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC OSS at 67%, FC Volendam at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC OSS and 67% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Volendam in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC OSS's games and 67% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC OSS's matches and 67% of FC Volendam's.
Do FC OSS and FC Volendam tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out FC OSS 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat FC OSS 2-3 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.67 xG and FC Volendam 1.74 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FC Volendam outscored their 1.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 1.27 / defence 1.17 against FC Volendam attack 1.03 / defence 0.98, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 37% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 40%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 57%, FC Volendam 86%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.43 PPG, FC Volendam 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.