FC Eindhoven 1-3 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Jong PSV U21 travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 April 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Jan Louwers Stadion, FC Eindhoven have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
FC Eindhoven are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Eindhoven, 1 for Jong PSV U21 and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2021, ended 2–3 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 52% versus Jong PSV U21 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 52% | Jong PSV U21 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 2.35 xG and Jong PSV U21 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.260 / defence 0.862 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.720 / defence 1.468. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.431. FC Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 2.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.468 — this is suppressing FC Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 FC Eindhoven games / 33 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 70% | Draw 18% | Jong PSV U21 12%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Jong PSV U21 8.33. The model has a clear lean to FC Eindhoven (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 60% | Jong PSV U21 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 70% | Draw 18% | Jong PSV U21 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 53% | xG FC Eindhoven 2.35 / Jong PSV U21 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.260 / def 0.862 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.720 / def 1.468 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.431 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Jong PSV U21 xG
53%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 3 Jong PSV U21.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 70% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21?
Record (1 meetings): FC Eindhoven 0W | Draws 0 | Jong PSV U21 1W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Eindhoven's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
70%
1.43
18%
5.58
12%
8.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.24
0.89
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.58
18%
Draw
8.12
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
10%
10.49
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
1%
85.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 0.89 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 19W 6D 8L from 33 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 16L across 33 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Eindhoven by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong PSV U21 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 11W 3D 2L from 16 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 3W 3D 10L across 16 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.58 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Defensively: FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 19W 6D 8L in their last 33 games (1.91 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 10W 7D 16L in their last 33 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.25 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.75 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or Jong PSV U21 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Jong PSV U21 in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Eindhoven have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2025, when FC Eindhoven won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Eindhoven
2
Draws
3
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-2 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 62%, Jong PSV U21 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (FC Eindhoven) and 56% (Jong PSV U21). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Jong PSV U21 in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC Eindhoven's games and 56% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 56% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat FC Eindhoven 1-3 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.35 xG and Jong PSV U21 0.89 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.26 / defence 0.86 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.72 / defence 1.47, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 70% | Draw 18% | Jong PSV U21 12%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Jong PSV U21 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 52%, Jong PSV U21 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Jong PSV U21 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.