Excelsior 2-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Excelsior and Roda meet at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Excelsior have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Roda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Roda arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Excelsior have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Roda in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Excelsior, 0 for Roda and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 62% and Roda 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 69% | Roda 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.81 xG and Roda 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.411 / defence 1.213 | Roda attack 1.116 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.448. Excelsior carry an above-average attack strength of 1.411 — their λ of 1.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 27 Excelsior games / 26 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 36% | Draw 22% | Roda 42%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.78 | Draw 4.55 | Roda 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 60% | Roda 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 36% | Draw 22% | Roda 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Excelsior 1.81 / Roda 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.411 / def 1.213 | Roda attack 1.116 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Roda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Roda xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Roda kick off?
Excelsior vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 February 2022 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Roda?
Excelsior 2 - 0 Roda.
Where is Excelsior vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Roda part of?
Excelsior vs Roda is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 36% chance of winning, Roda a 42% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Excelsior and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Roda?
Record (1 meetings): Excelsior 1W | Draws 0 | Roda 0W.
What form are Excelsior and Roda in?
Excelsior (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Roda (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (1.41) and Roda's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Roda's attack (1.12x) against Excelsior's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.0%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
36%
2.76
22%
4.65
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.77
1.96
Roda xG
2.76
36%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.56
Clean Sheet
14%
7.10
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
5%
19.59
7%
14.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.96 for Roda, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Excelsior's recent record stands at 15W 4D 7L from 26 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 5L across 26 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.88 PPG for Excelsior against 1.65 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 6W 3D 3L from 12 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 5W 5D 2L across 12 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 2.00 scored and 1.23 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Roda in 62%.
Last 26 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Roda in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 15W 4D 7L in their last 26 games (1.88 PPG), while Roda have gone 11W 10D 5L in their last 26 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Roda away?
Excelsior's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.75 PPG; Roda away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Roda in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 4 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Excelsior
2
Draws
1
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Roda?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 3, Roda have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Excelsior 1-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Roda?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Excelsior, 75% for Roda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Excelsior and 67% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Excelsior's games and 75% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Excelsior's matches and 67% of Roda's.
Do Excelsior and Roda tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Roda in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Roda 2-0 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.81 xG and Roda 1.96 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Roda landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.41 / defence 1.21 against Roda attack 1.12 / defence 1.12, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 36% | Draw 22% | Roda 42%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Excelsior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 69%, Roda 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Roda's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.88 PPG, Roda 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.