Excelsior 6-2 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong Ajax at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Jong Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Excelsior host Jong Ajax at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong Ajax — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Jong Ajax are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Excelsior register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong Ajax in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Excelsior, 0 for Jong Ajax and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Excelsior in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Jong Ajax in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 60% and Jong Ajax 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 68% | Jong Ajax 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.46 xG and Jong Ajax 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.108 / defence 1.207 | Jong Ajax attack 0.905 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.419. Data: 25 Excelsior games / 25 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 36% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 40%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Jong Ajax 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Ajax are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 60% | Jong Ajax 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 36% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Excelsior 1.46 / Jong Ajax 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.108 / def 1.207 | Jong Ajax attack 0.905 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Jong Ajax xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Excelsior vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 February 2022 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Jong Ajax?
Excelsior 6 - 2 Jong Ajax.
Where is Excelsior vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Jong Ajax part of?
Excelsior vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 36% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Excelsior and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Jong Ajax?
Record (1 meetings): Excelsior 1W | Draws 0 | Jong Ajax 0W.
What form are Excelsior and Jong Ajax in?
Excelsior (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Jong Ajax (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 1.11x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
36%
2.78
24%
4.13
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.01
1.55
Jong Ajax xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
8%
13.10
9%
10.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.55 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 13W 4D 8L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Ajax's form line: 15W 4D 6L from 25 games, 1.96 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Excelsior on 1.72 PPG, Jong Ajax on 1.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L).
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 6W 2D 4L from 12 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 2.12 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Jong Ajax in 76%.
Last 25 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 13W 4D 8L in their last 25 games (1.72 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 15W 4D 6L in their last 25 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Jong Ajax away?
Jong Ajax's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.50 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior and Jong Ajax runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2022, when Excelsior won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Excelsior
0
Draws
1
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Jong Ajax?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 3, Jong Ajax have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2025, when Jong Ajax 3-2 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Jong Ajax?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Excelsior at 58%, Jong Ajax at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Excelsior and 58% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Excelsior's games and 75% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Excelsior's matches and 58% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Excelsior and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Jong Ajax 6-2 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.46 xG and Jong Ajax 1.55 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.11 / defence 1.21 against Jong Ajax attack 0.91 / defence 1.14, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 36% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 40%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Excelsior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 68%, Jong Ajax 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.72 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.