Excelsior 1-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 52%, yet in-form Excelsior provide a compelling counter-argument — this Excelsior vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Excelsior and FC Volendam meet at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Excelsior (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Excelsior's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of FC Volendam's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 0.87 xG and FC Volendam 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.834 / defence 1.094 | FC Volendam attack 0.907 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 0.808 / away 1.525. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Excelsior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Excelsior games / 2 FC Volendam games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Excelsior 21% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 52%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | FC Volendam 1.92. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Excelsior (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Volendam if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 21% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Excelsior 0.87 / FC Volendam 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.834 / def 1.094 | FC Volendam attack 0.907 / def 1.292 | league avg home 0.808 / away 1.525 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.51
FC Volendam xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs FC Volendam kick off?
Excelsior vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 August 2021 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Excelsior 1 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Excelsior vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs FC Volendam part of?
Excelsior vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 21% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Excelsior and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and FC Volendam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Excelsior and FC Volendam in?
Excelsior (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 0.83x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.91x) against Excelsior's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
21%
4.72
27%
3.71
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.38
1.51
FC Volendam xG
4.72
21%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
5%
21.45
22%
4.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 13.9 | 10.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Excelsior and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.51 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Volendam's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Excelsior are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Volendam.
Attack vs Defence
Excelsior are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.50 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 4-0 on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Excelsior
3
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and FC Volendam?
From 10 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 5, FC Volendam have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Excelsior 1-1 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and FC Volendam?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Excelsior's games and 100% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Excelsior's matches and 100% of FC Volendam's.
Do Excelsior and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 3, as Excelsior and FC Volendam drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 0.87 xG and FC Volendam 1.51 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.83 / defence 1.09 against FC Volendam attack 0.91 / defence 1.29, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 21% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 52%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 50%, FC Volendam 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Volendam conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.