Excelsior 2-3 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion plays host to Excelsior versus ADO Den Haag in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Tuesday 25 January 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Excelsior have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Excelsior have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
ADO Den Haag's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, ADO Den Haag are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Excelsior lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Excelsior winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
ADO Den Haag goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 59% versus ADO Den Haag 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 68% | ADO Den Haag 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.94 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.165 / defence 1.110 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.973 / defence 1.444. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 1.433. ADO Den Haag bring a strong defensive rating of 1.444 — this is suppressing Excelsior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Excelsior games / 22 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 47% | Draw 22% | ADO Den Haag 31%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | ADO Den Haag 3.23. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form ADO Den Haag (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior 60% | ADO Den Haag 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 47% | Draw 22% | ADO Den Haag 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Excelsior 1.94 / ADO Den Haag 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.165 / def 1.110 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.973 / def 1.444 | league avg home 1.155 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.55
ADO Den Haag xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 25 January 2022 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag?
Excelsior 2 - 3 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 47% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Excelsior and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and ADO Den Haag?
Record (1 meetings): Excelsior 1W | Draws 0 | ADO Den Haag 0W.
What form are Excelsior and ADO Den Haag in?
Excelsior (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (1.17) and ADO Den Haag's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — ADO Den Haag's attack (0.97x) against Excelsior's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
47%
2.12
22%
4.57
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.49
1.55
ADO Den Haag xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
14%
6.98
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
4%
22.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Excelsior and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.55 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 13W 4D 5L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 15W 2D 5L from 22 games, 2.14 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.95 PPG for Excelsior against 2.14 for ADO Den Haag. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.80 PPG from 10 outings (5W 3D 2L).
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of ADO Den Haag's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.27 scored and 1.32 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Last 22 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 13W 4D 5L in their last 22 games (1.95 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 15W 2D 5L in their last 22 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or ADO Den Haag away?
Excelsior's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.80 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Excelsior or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Excelsior go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 7-1 on 25 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against ADO Den Haag — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Excelsior
2
Draws
1
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and ADO Den Haag?
From 8 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 5, ADO Den Haag have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Excelsior 1-0 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and ADO Den Haag?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 60%, ADO Den Haag 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Excelsior and 60% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play ADO Den Haag?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Excelsior's recent matches and 40% of ADO Den Haag's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Excelsior's matches and 60% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Excelsior and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ADO Den Haag defy the odds to beat Excelsior 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Excelsior 2-3 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.94 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.55 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.17 / defence 1.11 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.97 / defence 1.44, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 47% | Draw 22% | ADO Den Haag 31%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual ADO Den Haag win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 68%, ADO Den Haag 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.95 PPG, ADO Den Haag 2.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.