Emmen 2-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 23 as Emmen welcome NAC Breda to De Oude Meerdijk. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's home record at De Oude Meerdijk: 6W 0D 3L from 9 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
NAC Breda — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Emmen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Emmen, 0 for NAC Breda and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Emmen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
NAC Breda trading profile (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 38% versus NAC Breda 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 38% | NAC Breda 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.56 xG and NAC Breda 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.087 / defence 0.805 | NAC Breda attack 0.897 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.474. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Emmen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Emmen games / 22 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 48% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 25%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | NAC Breda 4.00. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Emmen 22% | NAC Breda 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 48% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Emmen 1.56 / NAC Breda 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.087 / def 0.805 | NAC Breda attack 0.897 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: Emmen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.06
NAC Breda xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs NAC Breda kick off?
Emmen vs NAC Breda kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Emmen 2 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Emmen vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs NAC Breda part of?
Emmen vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 48% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Emmen and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and NAC Breda?
Record (1 meetings): Emmen 1W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 0W.
What form are Emmen and NAC Breda in?
Emmen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Emmen's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
48%
2.06
26%
3.84
25%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.63
1.06
NAC Breda xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.92
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
5%
18.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Emmen and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Emmen and 1.06 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Emmen have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 13W 3D 5L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda's form line: 7W 7D 7L from 21 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Emmen are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NAC Breda.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 2.00 PPG from 9 outings (6W 0D 3L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.43 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; NAC Breda in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 13W 3D 5L in their last 21 games (2.00 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 7W 7D 7L in their last 21 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or NAC Breda away?
Emmen's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 2.00 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Emmen or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and NAC Breda?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, NAC Breda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Emmen 0-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and NAC Breda?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Emmen 22% BTTS, NAC Breda 44%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Emmen) and 56% (NAC Breda).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; NAC Breda in 33%; Emmen have failed to score in 33% of games; NAC Breda in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Emmen's recent matches and 44% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Emmen's recent games and 56% of NAC Breda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat NAC Breda 2-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.56 xG and NAC Breda 1.06 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. NAC Breda landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.09 / defence 0.81 against NAC Breda attack 0.90 / defence 1.24, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 48% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 25%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 38%, NAC Breda 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
NAC Breda's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.