Emmen 2-1 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 28 as Emmen welcome Jong Ajax to De Oude Meerdijk. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's home record at De Oude Meerdijk: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Oude Meerdijk. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Ajax stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Emmen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Emmen, 1 for Jong Ajax and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Jong Ajax winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (25 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Jong Ajax trading profile (25 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 36% versus Jong Ajax 80%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 36% | Jong Ajax 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 2.08 xG and Jong Ajax 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.205 / defence 0.782 | Jong Ajax attack 0.927 / defence 1.509. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.448. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.509 — this is suppressing Emmen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Emmen's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 25 Emmen games / 27 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 61% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 18%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Jong Ajax 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 30% | Jong Ajax 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 61% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 57% | xG Emmen 2.08 / Jong Ajax 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.205 / def 0.782 | Jong Ajax attack 0.927 / def 1.509 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Emmen (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Jong Ajax xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Emmen vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 February 2022 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Emmen 2 - 1 Jong Ajax.
Where is Emmen vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Jong Ajax part of?
Emmen vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 61% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Emmen and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong Ajax?
Record (1 meetings): Emmen 0W | Draws 0 | Jong Ajax 1W.
What form are Emmen and Jong Ajax in?
Emmen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Jong Ajax (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Emmen's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Jong Ajax's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.81
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.13
1.05
Jong Ajax xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
13%
8.00
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
2%
43.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Emmen and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Emmen and 1.05 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Emmen come into this having played 25 games, going 16W 4D 5L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 1.96 PPG from 25 outings (15W 4D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 2.08 PPG, Jong Ajax on 1.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Emmen's home form reads 8W 0D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 1.55 points per game from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong Ajax's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Emmen are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 2.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Jong Ajax's attacking output running into Emmen's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 80%.
Defensively: Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 16W 4D 5L in their last 25 games (2.08 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 15W 4D 6L in their last 25 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Jong Ajax away?
Emmen's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 2.18 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Emmen or Jong Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Jong Ajax in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Emmen and Jong Ajax runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Emmen's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
2
Draws
1
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong Ajax?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, Jong Ajax have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Emmen 0-0 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Jong Ajax?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 27%, Jong Ajax 82% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Emmen) and 64% (Jong Ajax).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Jong Ajax?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Emmen's recent matches and 82% of Jong Ajax's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Emmen's recent games and 64% of Jong Ajax's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out Jong Ajax 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Jong Ajax 2-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 2.08 xG and Jong Ajax 1.05 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.21 / defence 0.78 against Jong Ajax attack 0.93 / defence 1.51, drawn from 25/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 61% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 18%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 36%, Jong Ajax 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 2.08 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.