Emmen vs Heracles – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Heracles at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Heracles make the trip to De Oude Meerdijk to face Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Friday 23 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Emmen have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's home record at De Oude Meerdijk: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Heracles's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Emmen against 2.10 for Heracles. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Heracles goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 60% versus Heracles 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Emmen 64% | Heracles 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.93 xG and Heracles 2.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.060 / defence 1.027 | Heracles attack 1.371 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.953 / away 1.573. Heracles have an above-average attack strength of 1.371 — the away xG of 2.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Emmen games / 7 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 35% | Draw 20% | Heracles 45%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.86 | Draw 5.00 | Heracles 2.22. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.14. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.14 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 2.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.14 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 76%. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 60% | Heracles 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 23 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 35% | Draw 20% | Heracles 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 76% | xG Emmen 1.93 / Heracles 2.21 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.060 / def 1.027 | Heracles attack 1.371 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.953 / away 1.573 • Poisson stance: Heracles (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
2.21
Heracles xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Heracles kick off?
Emmen vs Heracles is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 23 April 2027 at De Oude Meerdijk.
Where is Emmen vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Heracles part of?
Emmen vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 35% chance of winning, Heracles a 45% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Emmen and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Heracles?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Emmen and Heracles in?
Emmen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Heracles (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Emmen's attack at 1.06x the league average against Heracles's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Heracles's attack (1.37x) against Emmen's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 2.21.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.5%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
35%
2.89
20%
4.97
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Emmen xG
Total xG
4.14
2.21
Heracles xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.19
Clean Sheet
11%
9.15
15%
6.90
Win to Nil
4%
26.46
7%
15.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are Emmen and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Emmen and 2.21 for Heracles, a combined total of 4.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 16W 9D 17L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles's form line: 12W 4D 26L from 42 games, 0.95 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Emmen are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Heracles.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.76 PPG from 21 outings (11W 4D 6L).
On the road, Heracles have gone 4W 1D 16L from 21 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Emmen are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.45 scored and 2.26 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Heracles in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 16W 9D 17L in their last 42 games (1.36 PPG), while Heracles have gone 12W 4D 26L in their last 42 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Heracles away?
Emmen's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.76 PPG; Heracles away: 0.62 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 57%, Heracles 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Emmen and 76% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Heracles in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Emmen's recent matches and 52% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Emmen's matches and 76% of Heracles's.
Do Emmen and Heracles tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Heracles in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.