Emmen 4-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Volendam make the trip to De Oude Meerdijk to face Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Monday 14 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Emmen (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 8W 0D 2L at De Oude Meerdijk — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Oude Meerdijk.
FC Volendam's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Volendam away from home this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.50 for Emmen, 2.10 for FC Volendam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Emmen 0W, FC Volendam 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Emmen — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 41% versus FC Volendam 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 41% | FC Volendam 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.18 xG and FC Volendam 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.063 / defence 0.829 | FC Volendam attack 0.845 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.439. Data: 29 Emmen games / 29 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 39% | Draw 30% | FC Volendam 31%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | FC Volendam 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 40% | FC Volendam 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Monday 14 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 39% | Draw 30% | FC Volendam 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Emmen 1.18 / FC Volendam 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.063 / def 0.829 | FC Volendam attack 0.845 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Emmen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.01
FC Volendam xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs FC Volendam kick off?
Emmen vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 14 March 2022 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs FC Volendam?
Emmen 4 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Emmen vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs FC Volendam part of?
Emmen vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 39% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Emmen and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC Volendam?
Record (1 meetings): Emmen 0W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are Emmen and FC Volendam in?
Emmen (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Emmen's attack at 1.06x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.84x) against Emmen's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
39%
2.54
30%
3.32
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.19
1.01
FC Volendam xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Emmen and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Emmen and 1.01 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Emmen have picked up 2.10 PPG on a 19W 4D 6L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
FC Volendam's form line: 18W 9D 2L from 29 games, 2.17 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.10 PPG for Emmen against 2.17 for FC Volendam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Emmen have posted 2.14 PPG from 14 outings (10W 0D 4L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 7W 7D 0L from 14 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Emmen are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.21 scored and 1.24 conceded. FC Volendam's attacking output running into Emmen's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 66%.
Defensively: Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Current Season
FC Volendam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 19W 4D 6L in their last 29 games (2.10 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 18W 9D 2L in their last 29 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or FC Volendam away?
Emmen's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 2.14 PPG; FC Volendam away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Emmen or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 4-1 on 14 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Emmen
2
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Emmen have won 2, FC Volendam have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Emmen 1-2 FC Volendam.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC Volendam see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 36%, FC Volendam 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Emmen) and 43% (FC Volendam).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; FC Volendam in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Emmen's recent matches and 57% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Emmen's recent games and 43% of FC Volendam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Emmen run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat FC Volendam 4-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.18 xG and FC Volendam 1.01 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.06 / defence 0.83 against FC Volendam attack 0.84 / defence 0.88, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 39% | Draw 30% | FC Volendam 31%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 41%, FC Volendam 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Volendam's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 2.10 PPG, FC Volendam 2.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.