Emmen 0-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Eindhoven make the trip to De Oude Meerdijk to face Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Friday 13 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Emmen have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Emmen, 1.00 for FC Eindhoven — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Emmen register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, FC Eindhoven in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 0.96 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.982 / defence 1.150 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.853 / away 1.212. Data: 1 Emmen games / 1 FC Eindhoven games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Emmen 27% | Draw 34% | FC Eindhoven 38%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | FC Eindhoven 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 13 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 27% | Draw 34% | FC Eindhoven 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Emmen 0.96 / FC Eindhoven 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.982 / def 1.150 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.853 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.19
FC Eindhoven xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Emmen vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 August 2021 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs FC Eindhoven?
Emmen 0 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Emmen vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Emmen vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 27% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Emmen and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Emmen and FC Eindhoven in?
Emmen (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.98x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.85x) against Emmen's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
27%
3.68
34%
2.91
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.15
1.19
FC Eindhoven xG
3.68
27%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.8 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Emmen and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Emmen and 1.19 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Emmen come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Emmen against 1.00 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Emmen are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. FC Eindhoven's attacking output running into Emmen's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Emmen have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; FC Eindhoven in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 28 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 6-0 on 11 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Emmen
1
Draws
5
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC Eindhoven?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 2, FC Eindhoven have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2026, when FC Eindhoven 1-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play FC Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Emmen's games and 100% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Emmen's recent games and 100% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out Emmen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Emmen 0-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 0.96 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.19 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Emmen fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 27% | Draw 34% | FC Eindhoven 38%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 0%, FC Eindhoven 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.00 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Eindhoven managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.