Emmen 0-1 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Emmen and Excelsior meet at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 October 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
Emmen (all games): 5W 1D 3L across 9 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.78 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 0.89 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at De Oude Meerdijk, Emmen have gone 2W 0D 2L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Excelsior's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 1D 3L from 9 games (1.78 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Excelsior have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.78 PPG for Emmen against 1.78 for Excelsior. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Emmen — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Excelsior — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 44% versus Excelsior 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 33% | Excelsior 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 2.07 xG and Excelsior 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.183 / defence 1.065 | Excelsior attack 1.072 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.366. Excelsior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Emmen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Emmen games / 9 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 50% | Draw 21% | Excelsior 29%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.00 | Draw 4.76 | Excelsior 3.45. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 25% | Excelsior 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Oct 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 50% | Draw 21% | Excelsior 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Emmen 2.07 / Excelsior 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.183 / def 1.065 | Excelsior attack 1.072 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Emmen (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Excelsior xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Excelsior kick off?
Emmen vs Excelsior kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 9 October 2021 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Excelsior?
Emmen 0 - 1 Excelsior.
Where is Emmen vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Excelsior part of?
Emmen vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 50% chance of winning, Excelsior a 29% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Emmen and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Excelsior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Emmen and Excelsior in?
Emmen (all comps): 5W-1D-3L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.89 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Excelsior (all comps): 5W-1D-3L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Emmen's attack rating (1.18) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (1.07x) against Emmen's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
50%
2.02
21%
4.72
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.62
1.56
Excelsior xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
4%
26.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Emmen and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Emmen and 1.56 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Emmen's recent record stands at 5W 1D 3L from 9 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 3L across 9 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Emmen against 1.78 for Excelsior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Excelsior's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Emmen are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 2.00 scored and 1.33 conceded. Excelsior's attacking output running into Emmen's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 games (1.78 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Excelsior away?
Emmen's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.50 PPG; Excelsior away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Emmen
1
Draws
3
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, Emmen have won 2, Excelsior have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Excelsior 2-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emmen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 25%, Excelsior 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 25% for Emmen and 100% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Excelsior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Emmen's recent matches and 75% of Excelsior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 25% of Emmen's matches and 100% of Excelsior's.
Shock result as Excelsior defy the odds to beat Emmen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Emmen 0-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 2.07 xG and Excelsior 1.56 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Emmen fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.18 / defence 1.06 against Excelsior attack 1.07 / defence 1.29, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 50% | Draw 21% | Excelsior 29%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Excelsior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 33%, Excelsior 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Excelsior's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.78 PPG, Excelsior 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.