Emmen 2-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Emmen host Dordrecht at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen at De Oude Meerdijk this season: 5W 0D 3L from 8 home games — 1.88 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Oude Meerdijk. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 3.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 1W 1D 7L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Emmen carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dordrecht trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 39% versus Dordrecht 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 39% | Dordrecht 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 2.56 xG and Dordrecht 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.113 / defence 0.699 | Dordrecht attack 0.768 / defence 1.914. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.549. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.914 — this is suppressing Emmen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Emmen's defence rating of 0.699 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 18 Emmen games / 18 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 75% | Draw 15% | Dordrecht 10%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.33 | Draw 6.67 | Dordrecht 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 12% | Dordrecht 89%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 75% | Draw 15% | Dordrecht 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 52% | xG Emmen 2.56 / Dordrecht 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.113 / def 0.699 | Dordrecht attack 0.768 / def 1.914 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.549 • Poisson stance: Emmen (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Dordrecht xG
52%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Dordrecht kick off?
Emmen vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 December 2021 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Emmen 2 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Emmen vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Dordrecht part of?
Emmen vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 75% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 10% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Emmen and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Dordrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Emmen and Dordrecht in?
Emmen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 3.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Emmen's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.56. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.0%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
75%
1.34
15%
6.49
10%
10.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.39
0.83
Dordrecht xG
1.34
75%
Home win
6.49
15%
Draw
10.03
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
8%
12.87
Win to Nil
33%
3.08
1%
129.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Emmen and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Emmen and 0.83 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Emmen's recent record stands at 10W 3D 5L from 18 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 12L across 18 games — 0.56 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Emmen by 1.27 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dordrecht heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 5W 0D 3L from 8 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 0W 1D 7L across 8 trips, a 0.12 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dordrecht's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Emmen are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.17 scored and 2.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 72%.
Last 18 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 10W 3D 5L in their last 18 games (1.83 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 2W 4D 12L in their last 18 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Dordrecht away?
Emmen's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.88 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.12 PPG.
Have Emmen or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Emmen and Dordrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2025, when Dordrecht won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Emmen
1
Draws
5
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Emmen have won 4, Dordrecht have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Dordrecht 1-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 12%, Dordrecht 88% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 25% for Emmen and 100% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Dordrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Emmen's recent matches and 88% of Dordrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 25% of Emmen's matches and 100% of Dordrecht's.
Do Emmen and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out Dordrecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Dordrecht 2-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 2.56 xG and Dordrecht 0.83 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.11 / defence 0.70 against Dordrecht attack 0.77 / defence 1.91, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 75% | Draw 15% | Dordrecht 10%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 39%, Dordrecht 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dordrecht's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.56. That form edge translated into the three points. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.